After Maria, Puerto Rican vote looms large for 2018.
TALLAHASSEE – Politicians from Florida have been among the loudest voices sounding alarms over the humanitarian crisis on Puerto Rico this week, with Gov. Rick Scott among them.
“We’re going to do everything we can to help Puerto Rico,” Scott told WOFL-Channel 35 on Friday. “We’re in a unique position; we have a lot of Puerto Ricans that live here.”
Before heading to Puerto Rico on Thursday to help recovery efforts, Scott called for colleges to offer in-state tuition to refugees from the island and put the National Guard on standby to deploy there.
Scott’s urgent calls to render aid were in response to the depth of the crisis in Puerto Rico. But they also underline the importance of a growing voting bloc in Central Florida, one that has trended Democratic in recent years, as Scott considers a run for U.S. Senate next year against Bill Nelson, an Orlando Democrat.
Scott’s increased emphasis on issues important to Hispanics includes pushing to end state investments in companies that do business with the dictatorial Venezuelan government, slamming the détente with the communist Cuban government begun by President Obama and calling for Congress to extend a temporary deferment of deportation for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children.
He’s also been speaking Spanish regularly in his public appearances for the last four years.
Scott also is hosting a Latin American Summit in Miami on Monday, with panels featuring Hispanic elected officials, business executives, diplomats and activists.
Democrats see those moves as a major shift for Scott, who won the 2010 GOP primary for governor in part by embracing a controversial Arizona immigration law requiring police officers to check the residency status of suspects. He was an early supporter of President Trump, who has alienated many Hispanics with his anti-immigration rhetoric.
Scott “and Trump are best buds,” said Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando. “Hopefully, soon Rick Scott can tell me in Spanish how he supports Donald Trump’s wall [and] how he won’t raise the minimum wage.”
But for Republicans, Scott’s efforts to court Hispanic voters across the state aren’t a significant change.
“He’s really been a compassionate leader with a willingness to serve all communities, so it’s not a surprise that he’s doing it, to me,” said Brian Hughes, GOP political consultant and former spokesman for Scott. “But it also makes for good politics, and if he is going to run statewide, reminding Spanish-speaking communities inside the state who he is and what he stands for is a good idea.”
Scott could be running in a different environment in 2018. Democrats are already pointing to their special election victory in a state Senate race in Miami-Dade County on Tuesday as evidence Trump is dragging down Republicans and boosting turnout among their voters.
Voter enthusiasm and turnout will be essential for Democrats in 2018, who tend to draw fewer voters in midterm elections.
Democratic consultant Steve Schale said the dropoff is largest among Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida who tend to lean Democratic. Still, trends within the Hispanic voting bloc are good for his party, he said.
“The Hispanic vote in Florida is getting younger, it’s getting less Cuban,” Schale said.
The influx of Puerto Ricans to Florida, begun by deep economic problems that forced the island’s government to declare bankruptcy in May, is likely to accelerate after Hurricane Maria.
Rep. Rene Plasencia, ROrlando, said he’s heard estimates of at least 100,000 Puerto Ricans heading to Florida, joining the 1 million who already live here.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Florida by just 112,911 votes in 2016, and Scott won re-election in 2014 by 64,145 votes.
Although Puerto Ricans tend to vote Democratic they haven’t signed on to the party in massive numbers, preferring instead to register as independents. The general trend for Republicans in Hispanic voters, though, isn’t good.
When Scott was first elected in 2010, Hispanic voters made up 13 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Hispanic voters were registered as Republicans. As of the 2016 election, Hispanic voters make up nearly 16 percent of all voters, and the portion of Hispanics registered as Republicans has dropped to 25 percent.
“[Scott] is a smart man, he sees the writing on the wall,” said Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE initiative, a group that aims to boost job opportunities for Hispanics and promote free market, conservative ideas. “He sees what’s happening, that the Latino voters were tending towards the left.
“They’re not born progressive or liberal, they’re made that way,’’ he said. “And nobody is born conservative either.’’