A revised map to playoff semifinals
More than halfway through the college football season, we’ve experienced our first chaotic weekend that shook up the playoff picture. Seven ranked teams lost, with four of those teams ranked in the top 10.
With all the latest shifts in mind, here’s a look at my top 12 college football teams and the path they face trying to earn one of the four College Football Playoff semifinal bids:
The Tide continue their stranglehold on the top spot and will be heavily favored in their final five regular-season games.
vs. Tennessee (Oct. 21), vs. No. 24 LSU (Nov. 4), at Miss. State (Nov. 11), vs. Mercer (Nov. 18), at No. 21 Auburn (Nov. 25).
If Penn State survives the next three weeks, the Nittany Lions path to their first playoff appearance seems almost inevitable. But that’s a big with a road game against Ohio State on the horizon.
vs. No. 19 Michigan (Oct. 21), at No. 6 Ohio State (O28), at No. 18 Michigan State (N4), vs Rutgers (Nov. 11), vs Nebraska (Nov. 18), at Maryland (Nov. 25).
The Bulldogs have the toughest remaining strength of schedule based on ESPN’s Football Power Index, with a challenging game against Auburn and a possible showdown with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
vs. Florida (Oct. 28), vs. South Carolina (Nov. 4), at No. 21 Auburn (Nov. 11), vs. Kentucky (Nov. 18), at Georgia Tech (Nov. 25).
November presents the biggest challenge for TCU, with games against Texas and Oklahoma looming. If the Horned Frogs win out, a rematch with OU or OSU in the Big 12 title game awaits.
vs. Kansas (Oct. 21), at Iowa State (Oct. 28), vs. Texas (Nov. 4), at No. 9 Oklahoma (Nov. 11), at Texas Tech (Nov. 18), vs. Baylor (Nov. 24).
Wisconsin has quietly gone about building a two-game lead in the Big Ten West Division and the Badgers could clinch the division crown in midNovember, COMMENTARY giving them time to regroup before a tough conference title game.
vs. Maryland (Oct. 21), at Illinois (Oct. 28), at Indiana (Nov. 4), vs. Iowa (Nov. 11), vs. No. 19 Michigan (Nov. 18), at Minnesota (Nov. 25).
It’s simple for Ohio State: run the table, including quality wins over Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and the Big Ten title game, and return to the playoffs for the second time in four years.
vs. No. 2 Penn State (Oct. 28), at Iowa (Nov. 4), vs. No. 18 Michigan State (Nov. 11), vs. Illinois (Nov. 18), at No. 19 Michigan (Nov. 25).
This weekend’s loss to Syracuse was unfortunate, but it’s not the end of the world. If the Tigers win the rest of their games, including the ACC Championship Game, they will get a chance to defend their national title.
vs. Ga. Tech (Oct. 28), at No. 16 NC State (Nov. 4), vs. FSU (Nov. 11), vs. The Citadel (Nov. 18), at South Carolina (Nov. 25).
It’s been quite a while since we’ve mentioned Miami and national title in the same sentence, but the path to a championship exists the ’Canes can survive a tough November.
vs. Syracuse (Oct. 21), at North Carolina (Oct. 28), vs. No. 14 Va. Tech (Nov. 4), vs. No. 13 Notre Dame (Nov. 11), vs. Virginia (Nov. 18), at Pitt (Nov. 24).
A one-loss conference champion has managed a spot in the semifinals each of the first three seasons of the playoff, so there’s hope for the Sooners.
at Kansas State (Oct/ 21), vs. Texas Tech (Oct. 28), at No. 10 Okla. State (Nov. 4), vs. No. 4 TCU (Nov. 11), at Kansas (Nov. 18), vs. No. 23 West Virginia (Nov. 25).
See No. 9 Oklahoma. The Cowboys will need to follow the same game plan and sweep their remaining games.
at Texas (Oct. 21), at No. 23 West Virginia (Oct. 28), vs. No. 9 Oklahoma, at Iowa State (Nov. 11), vs. Kansas State (Nov. 18), vs. Kansas (Nov. 25).
If the Pac-12 is going to get a team into the playoff, it’s going to need the Trojans to play well — especially on the road including this weekend against a tough Notre Dame team.
at No. 13 Notre Dame (Oct. 21), at Arizona State (Oct. 28), vs. Arizona (Nov. 4), at Colorado (Nov. 11), vs. UCLA (Nov. 18).
Normally a team could survive a loss like the one the Huskies suffered this weekend to Arizona State, but with a weak schedule, it’s an uphill climb to the playoff.
vs. UCLA (Oct. 28), vs. Oregon (Nov. 4), at No. 22 Stanford (Nov. 10), vs. Utah (Nov. 18), vs. No. 15 Washington State (Nov. 25).