Orlando Sentinel

Scott Maxwell:

Measuring impact of Maria evacuees.

- Scott Maxwell Sentinel Columnist

Hurricane Maria never hit Central Florida. But she will profoundly change the region. In fact, she has already started. Local classes are filling with Puerto Rican transfer students whose families fled the stormravag­ed island.

Osceola County reported 453 transfers from the island last Thursday. By the next morning, the number was up to 516. By Tuesday, it was 650.

The numbers are even higher in Orange.

Experts are predicting 100,000 or more residents of the island will ultimately land in our region — more than anywhere else, thanks to the already fast-growing population of former islanders.

The evacuees will impact our culture, our economy and our politics.

But before we run wild with speculatio­n on what that might mean, I decided to reach out to someone who knows — someone who saw her own community transforme­d by more than 100,000 hurricane evacuees.

Her name is Annise Parker, and she is the former mayor of Houston.

Parker is a Houston native. She was on the City Council before Katrina struck. She was the city’s controller when it did. And she was mayor after. She saw how things changed — for better and worse.

She said it all started with a mad scramble and open arms, Texans clamoring to find the basic needs for all the evacuees suddenly in their midst — food, shelter and classrooms.

But somewhere along the way, Parker said they realized this wasn’t a short-term thing. “The light bulb went off,” she said. “We realized they couldn’t go back.”

Today’s evacuees were going to be tomorrow’s residents.

At first, that was tough. “It’s like any guest who comes to visit,” Parker said. “You are really glad to see them. But after a while, it’s like: ‘You’re going to have to go home.’ It’s just natural.”

Houston’s Rice University found that civic activism surged when the evacuees arrived, but that citizens later started grumbling. The Houston Chronicle cited one poll that found 65 percent of city residents believed the overall impact on the city was “a bad thing.”

But then, Parker said, the city pivoted again. Residents stopped viewing the newcomers as evacuees, but as something simpler — Houstonian­s.

They became part of the fabric of the community. They filled jobs, created jobs and opened restaurant­s. Their kids played on the same soccer fields as everyone else’s.

Ultimately, Parker said, the lesson was clear: “The city of Houston is richer for having them here.”

I’d like to believe we’ll see something similar as we look to accommodat­ing a massive influx of people who never wanted to leave their home.

But there will be change. And

growing pains.

Schools are feeling the impact immediatel­y with $10 million or more needed just for the students who have shown up already. So are local nonprofits, which are already strained, thanks to our low-wage economy.

The influx has the potential to depress wages even further. Suddenly, we will have many more people desperate for jobs, many of them entry-level.

Still, Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist, believes those impacts will be short-lived, largely because our growth is strong and unemployme­nt rate low. “The region’s economy is in a pretty good position to be able to absorb them over time,” he said.

We’re in a boom part of Florida’s boom-bust cycle, and more hands are actually needed in growth industries.

Politicall­y, Puerto Ricans tend to vote more Democratic, meaning they may deepen the shade of blue

of already deep-blue places, like Orange and Osceola. But UCF political scientist Aubrey Jewett noted that islanders have also demonstrat­ed independen­t streaks, meaning both parties should view them as “a hot commodity.”

I believe the impact will be significan­t. And trying at times in a state where government and social services are already often overwhelme­d and underfunde­d compared to most states.

But I also think Central Floridians are quick to adapt. And to welcome. We are a community full of transplant­s and transients, used to having new people arrive.

And Houston’s Parker said that, when all was said and done, the evacuees helped make her city’s economy stronger and its cultural texture richer.

The people who were formerly known as evacuees become known as co-workers and neighbors.

“And,” she added, “a little jambalaya and South Louisiana music cooking definitely livened the food scene and entertainm­ent culture.”

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