Irma’s impact on fruit, vegetable crops.
There will be fewer Florida vegetables on Thanksgiving tables. The effects of Hurricane Irma on Florida crops won’t end soon. To find out more about Irma’s impact on fruits and vegetables, the Orlando Sentinel Editorial Board sought out Rodney Clouser, professor and associate chair of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida-Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. For a complete transcript, go to OrlandoSentinel.com/Opinion.
Q: Peanuts, avocados, sugar, strawberries — all sorts of crops were hit by Irma. Was there any sector not affected? A: No, and this is a certainty. Irma’s agricultural impacts affected every county and almost every commodity produced in the state, from aquaculture to zucchini. The largest impacts were in Southwest Florida up through the center of the state. However, tropical storm force winds in excess of 39 mph touched every county in the state.
Q: What happens to fruit and vegetable prices in grocery stores? Is it too soon to say whether the effect will last? A: In the short term, the expectation would be higher prices for commodities impacted by the storm. However, some of those upward trends aren’t just the result of Irma. For example, commodity futures price quotes for orange juice started an upward trend in late July, well before the hurricane. Longer term, the market would be expected to settle at a balance reflecting world demand and supply conditions.
Q: Do you expect a flood of foreign fruit and produce to enter the market? Does it pose any lasting threat? A: It is difficult to tell. There are many different factors to consider. In general, increased competition tends to lead to lower prices. That impacts farm profitability. Another concern would be that if market share of a commodity is lost, how easily and quickly can it be recovered? Some consumers may have general concerns regarding food safety related to imported commodities, and if so, recovering market share may be less difficult. The storm does open up the opportunity for discussion in the U.S. How important is food security? Many people want an abundant, safe and affordable food supply in the U.S. When a large important agricultural state such as Florida is touched by a disaster statewide, whether by hurricane or other disaster conditions, food/national security should rise as a national policy discussion.
Q: The Florida citrus industry was particularly hard hit. Do growers sell their land (like they did after several hard freezes in the 1980s) or switch to different crops? A: Florida citrus producers have only three options: 1. Recovery based on the condition of the trees after the storm and the future of citrus production in Florida; 2. Switch to alternative crops, many with unproven markets; or 3. If the time is right, based on many factors such as age of the producers, family succession looking toward the future, liquidity and net worth, etc., place the land on the market for sale. Replacing or re-establishing citrus groves is not an inexpensive strategy. Right now the expectation is that all three choices will be seen in the future, but at this time, there is no expectation that there will be a considerable amount of land placed on the market for sale. The future of citrus in Florida is an important factor long-term. Irma did nothing to make that future brighter in Florida, but industry impacts related to citrus greening have had much larger, longer-term impacts than the hurricane.
Q: Estimates of losses range as high as an eye-popping $2.5 billion. Is there a crop that accounts for a chunk of that, or are the losses across the board? A: All commodities experienced some type of loss. Three industries — citrus, cattle and dairy — accounted for about 40 percent of these losses. Citrus losses alone accounted for an estimated $760.8 million of the $2.5 billion loss.