Jags could steal bye from Pats
Decent possibility of Jacksonville stealing a No. 2 seed in AFC merits watching
The Jacksonville Jaguars, a franchise consigned for the past decade to perennial irrelevance, have suddenly become a major factor in the NFL’s hierarchy. On Sunday, they clinched a winning season with a resounding victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Only catastrophic incompetence could prevent their first playoff appearance since 2007. By next week, the Jaguars could have the inside track on the New England Patriots for a playoff bye.
The Jaguars, rubbing elbows with and maybe even passing the Patriots? The Jaguars? Just look at the standings. When the Patriots lost Monday night, the easy reaction was to consider how it impacted the Pittsburgh Steelers’ path to a top seed. Really, the more meaningful effect was how it brought the Jaguars into play for a playoff bye.
If the Patriots lose in Pittsburgh and the Jaguars win at home against the reeling Texans this coming weekend, they would both stand 10-4. The Jaguars would be 9-2 in AFC games while the Patriots would be 7-3. It’s possible the Jaguars will be in position to land a bye after this week and control their own destiny to hold it. The Patriots are favored and have owned Pittsburgh in recent years, but the possibility of the Jaguars stealing a No. 2 seed from New England is legitimate.
The Jaguars would not have a large hurdle to cross the rest of the way, either. They finish with games at the 49ers and at the Titans, two games they likely would be favored to win, even if the 49ers have improved massively with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. The Jaguars are in position to host a playoff game and maybe even win on the second weekend.
It is remarkable, on its face, that the Jaguars can be reasonably counted upon to win future games. They have built their season behind a defense that might be the league’s best. When they added defensive tackle Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye to a unit loaded with recent top draft picks, they created a monster. According to Pro Football Focus’s ranking, the Jaguars’ defense is the NFL’s best, by a clear margin.
For much of the season, the Jaguars have relied on their defense while their offense did its best not to foul up, and not always successfully. Leonard Fournette has been a battering ram and helped protect leads, but quarterback Blake Bortles presents a clear weakness. What sticks out about the Jaguars’ recent performance, though, is the possible progression of their offense.
Two weeks ago against the Colts, Bortles completed 26 of 39 attempts for 309 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. The Colts are terrible, but Bortles validated the performance against the Seahawks. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 268 yards and another two touchdowns, one of them a 75-yard bomb to Keenan Cole, without an interception. Rookie Dede Westbrook, a remarkably prolific receiver in college, has returned from an injury and given the Jaguars a reliable outside weapon. Sunday, he caught four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown.
There’s a still better chance that Bortles will cost the Jaguars a game in the playoffs than be primarily responsible for winning one. But for the past two weeks, at least, he has turned the Jaguars’ offense into a passable passing unit.
“It’s still the first year playing in this system,” Bortles said Sunday. “I think that gets forgotten a lot of the time. Guys week by week are starting to become more comfortable with it, more confident in it, kind of going out there and playing free rather than thinking.”
Under Doug Marrone, in his first full season as Jacksonville’s coach, the Jaguars have been one of the AFC’s best teams, and are still improving in December. After Sunday’s game, Marrone reminded his players they still had more work ahead. Most seasons in Jacksonville, it would be meaningless. Now the Jaguars have a lot to play for, more than most people probably realize. NFL PLAYOFF SCENARIOS