Evacuees’ impact questioned

Some argue Scott’s state figures from Puerto Rico lack context

The flood of evacuees from Puerto Rico is reshaping schools, communities and public services, but the truth is nobody knows exactly how many islanders are moving to Florida permanently.

Three university professors who are studying the influx after Hurricane Maria hit the island in September are questioning figures that Gov. Rick Scott has been using – most recently 300,000. The storm — which knocked out all power and most cellphone service for weeks — was the worst disaster to ever hit the Caribbean island.

Scott’s number represents people on commercial airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Orlando, Miami and Tampa — a statistic tracked by the Florida Division of Emergency Management. So it would include businesspeople, journalists, aid workers, contractors, government employees and possibly travelers who connected at Puerto Rico airports from other points of origin.

But Scott has used the number without explaining that context.

“We’ve had over 280,000 Puerto Ricans come here,” Scott said at a news conference in Jacksonville in December.

Similarly, Orange County Mayor Teresa Jacobs referenced “300,000 people coming to the state” at a housing forum Thursday in Orlando that included Scott.

But the post-Maria moves to Florida are probably more like 50,000 so far, according to University of Florida economists, based on hard numbers like school enrollments and requests for state aid.

There’s really no whole number that is reliable yet, said Rich Doty, GIS Coordinator & Research Demographer at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The most accurate number is from schools, where children from the island are new registrations. Statewide, that number is about 11,200 for arrivals from Puerto Rico and the much smaller Virgin Islands.

“That’s really a ridiculously high number,” said Doty, of the airport arrival figures. “In the next several months, we hope to get a survey. But even that will probably not give us very useful data.”

A University of Central Florida professor also cast doubt on six-digit estimates used by the state.

“I agree that the airport numbers are not reliable,” said Luis Martinez-Fernandez, an expert on Latin America. “Comparative school enrollment figures are more useful.”

Federal grant money relies on calculations of the number of people affected in order to help people find housing, skilled workers find jobs or school districts accommodate thousands of new students.

Alberto Moscoso, spokesman for the state’s Division of Emergency Management, said the number of arrivals from the island is the “best information” they have.

“I think it is representative of the total number that are moving from Puerto Rico to Florida,” Moscoso said.

Yet the agency has also reported a number closer to UF’s estimate – 35,000 Puerto Ricans have checked into the state’s Multi-Agency Resource Centers at Florida’s three largest airports.

American Airlines said it has returned to the same exact flight schedule it had before Maria for this time of year, 16 flights a day leaving Puerto Rico for various U.S. destinations. Other airlines have also restored usual service.

Having an accurate number is crucial for schools and other government services to know what to plan for, said a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Orlando.

“Orange County’s public schools have taken in 3,492 displaced children as of the last count,” a statement from Demings said. “It’s our job to do everything in our power to make them and their families feel at home. I’ll continue to facilitate and expand assistance to all evacuees from 2017’s catastrophic storms.”

Puerto Ricans who land in Orlando or Miami have been showing up in Jacksonville to seek work, said Nancy Quinones, president of the Puerto Rican Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Jacksonville.

“We’ve helped about 400 families here,” Quinones said. “It’s very hard to get statistics about this. Important to be accurate, but it is hard to know.”

National media have also used Scott’s numbers without context. Several referred to a mass exodus that “obliterated” initial estimates.

Since Puerto Rico’s 3.4 million residents are U.S. citizens, many might not register their move anywhere for a while, simply moving in with family or friends in Orlando, which had a huge and rapidly growing Puerto Rican population before Maria. For example, Orange County Tax Collector Scott Randolph had reported more than 20,000 Puerto Rico residents moving to the county in the 12 months before Maria.

“We can safely assume that the proportion of entrants that return to Puerto Rico will be much smaller than the proportion of entrants in previous years,” Martinez-Fernandez said. “Those who were thinking about resettling in Florida accelerated their departure. It is now a matter of desperation for many.”