Florida’s political clout

Florida to get 2 new congressional districts, 2 more electoral votes

grows with two new congressional districts and electoral votes.

The constant flow of new residents to Florida will make the Sunshine State a big winner in coming years, as political power shifts among states across the country.

The latest estimate, based on Census Bureau data released last month, comes from the consulting firm Election Data Services in Virginia. With the state’s population increasing by an average of 898 people a day from July 2016 to July 2017, political influence follows.

Florida is in line to pick up two new congressional districts, increasing its clout. The new total: 29 seats in the 435-member House of Representatives.

The state will become even more important in presidential elections. Florida would control 31 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, up from the current 29.

“It’s great,” said Pamela Goodman, of Palm Beach Gardens, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida. “The louder the voice, the stronger the voice that we have nationally, the better.”

The only bigger winner than Florida is the mega-state of Texas, projected to land three more congressional districts and three more electoral votes.

The losers span the Northeast and Midwest, where populations are stalled or declining. Illinois could lose three seats.

Right now, the change is a projection, but highly reliable, said Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University. And the shift isn’t immediate.

First comes the 2020 Census, which produces official numbers used for reapportionment, the once-a-decade dividing of House seats among the 50 states. Then, the Florida Legislature draws congressional district boundaries for the 2022 election. Finally, in the 2024 presidential election, Florida awards all its electoral votes to the winner of the statewide vote.

Presidential elections

Controlling more than 10 percent of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Floridians would continue to get lots of visits from presidential candidates and campaign advertising far into the future.

“Florida, with two more electoral votes, will certainly continue to be the largest swing state and the biggest prize in the presidential election,” Foreman said.

No. 1 California is solidly Democratic, and No. 2 Texas is solidly Republican, although some analysts predict the growing Hispanic population there could ultimately make it a more competitive state. No. 3 Florida is called a swing state because it is so closely divided that elections can be decided by a shift of just 1 percent or 2 percent of the vote.

Congressional presence

A larger congressional delegation could mean more clout for Florida.

Foreman and Larry Casey, a Re-