Orlando: Epicenter for 2018 election
TALLAHASSEE — Florida will experience a giant whirlwind of a political season this year, with a marquee U.S. Senate race drawing national attention, a hotly contested U.S. House race up for grabs and the largest field of viable candidates for governor in a generation.
Central Florida is the eye of that storm, pulling in candidates to rally supporters, raise money and develop momentum before heading out to other parts of the peninsula.
“The Orlando media market as a whole is vitally important not only for getting your base out but then appealing to a lot of those swing voters as well,” said Brett Doster, a GOP consultant. “The Orlando [media market] is probably the most important swing area in the state of Florida, and that’s why you’ll see a lot of the outside candidates both from the gubernatorial side and the senatorial side spend time in Orlando.”
Gov. Rick Scott chose Orlando to make his announcement for U.S. Senate on Monday, setting up a contest with incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson — an Orlando resident — that will draw millions of dollars in outside donations and plenty of national attention.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris King opened his campaign headquarters on East Colonial Drive on Tuesday, a short drive from where former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham relocated her campaign war room last year. Another candidate, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, held a rally in Orlando on Tuesday, and a fourth Democratic hopeful, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, bought $1.7 million in ads this week that include the Central Florida market.
The region is home to 2.3 million registered voters, nearly 18 percent of all voters in the state. Its most populous county, Orange, is a Democratic bastion but is surrounded by Republicanleaning counties. Central Florida is also attracting Puerto Ricans fleeing Hurricane Maria, a bloc of voters being wooed by both parties.
“We have all these confounding variables around us that lift up Orlando to be the center of the universe to some degree,” said Anna Eskamani, a Democratic candidate for a state House district that includes Belle Isle, Edgewood, part of Orlando and Winter Park.
Eskamani, 27, and state Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, an Orlando Democrat, were activists before running for office themselves. Eskamani worked for Planned Parenthood and Smith was a lobbyist for Equality Florida, an LGBT rights group, making them part of a hub of young, progressive voices in Orlando becoming more important to Democrats statewide.
Smith endorsed Gillum in the Democratic primary race for governor and attended the rally in Orlando with him Tuesday.
“We have repeatedly put up statewide candidates that are very middle of the road, very moderate, very boring and very squishy. And they lose every time,” Smith said. “There’s a reason for that.”
The fight over U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s seat, a district that consists of Seminole County and part of Orange County, will also be fierce, as Republicans look to regain a seat from Democrats. Murphy upset John Mica, a 24-year incumbent, in 2016.
The race could be crucial to GOP efforts to thwart a “blue wave” Democrats hope will come from an excited base of voters and suburban moderates turned off by President Donald Trump that has helped them win a series of special elections across the country since 2016.
Republicans, though, don’t buy talk of a Democratic victory march in November.
“In a lot of swing areas in the state and the country, I think people need to be really careful about getting too excited about special elections or pre midterm elections,” Doster said. “Have they won a few elections? Yes, they have. Is it predictive of a massive blue wave? I don’t think so.”
Democrats have been increasing their lead in registered voters in Orange County, and make up 42 percent of voters compared to Republicans’ 27 percent.
So Orlando could also play a decisive role in the Democratic primary for governor.
But Democrats have still won just one non-federal statewide election since 1998. Despite the optimism spurred by wins in special elections around the country, Democrats also failed to run a viable candidate in a special election for House District 44, which covers western Orange County, earlier this year. And GOP strongholds surrounding Orlando, such as The Villages, have grown redder.
Scott set up a rally there Friday afternoon to cap off the first week of his campaign. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, running to replace the termlimited Scott, joined the rally’s lineup. U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Marineland, is challenging him for the GOP nomination, and state House Speaker Richard Corcoran, R-Land O’Lakes, is expected to get in the race as well.