Trump’s withdrawal may mean big trouble

deal. Trump’s reimposition of sanctions against Iran means that these companies risk prosecution and billion-dollar fines. Foreign companies with a presence on Wall Street fall under American jurisdiction.

Allies who believe that they can’t rely on America to keep its promises will be motivated to seek other options. The main beneficiary of this is Russia, which has long been conveying the message that the U.S. is a less-than-reliable partner. Russia has also been working with China to build an alternative banking architecture. If this new architecture enables European countries to bypass a U.S. system that controls their access to markets, then Trump will have emboldened the competition at America’s expense.

Third, the move would slam the door on any opportunity to build the kind of relationships that Western intelligence agencies seeking insight into Iran can only dream about. The five hardest intelligence-collection targets are widely considered to be North Korea, Iran, Russia, China and France. In the first four cases, it’s because access is so difficult. In the case of France, it’s because key decisions are very tightly held near the top of the food chain and spy-busting counterintelligence is aggressive. With Iran and North Korea, America was on the verge of prying open those vaults without firing a shot — not with boots on the ground but with business shoes. And aren’t spying, aggression and warfare largely about the prospect of economic gain?

Of course, national security is a viable pretext for international conflict, too. And that brings me to my final point.

The U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal confirms Iran hard-liners’ suspicions that abandonment of nuclear self-defense capabilities would prove to be foolish, because even a signed deal is no guarantee that a friend today won’t decide to become your foe tomorrow.

Trump has long seemed intent on undoing one of the rare things that President Barack Obama got right. The decision to ditch the Iran deal could change the world — and not in a way that benefits America, global security or the free market.