A blue wave in Seminole? Not when Democrats MIA on ballot
This was supposed to be the year Seminole County turned blue. After Stephanie Murphy defeated John Mica for Congress, an unknown Democrat received 43 percent of the vote against incumbent Commissioner Brenda Carey, and Donald Trump narrowly defeated Clinton by fewer than 4,000 votes, Seminole was considered ripe for Democrat pickings.
After Trump’s election, as Democrat disbelief turned to introspection, a page was ripped from the tea-party playbook, and the “Indivisible Movement” was born: Instead of focusing exclusively on national elections, Democrats would capitalize on perceived anger and mobilize locally to resist Trump’s agenda.
They produced a guide recruiting candidates for local races to create grassroots momentum to propel a big “blue wave” to sweep the nation, flipping local governments and sparking a progressive renaissance. A midterm wave would help Democrats capture the White House in 2020.
In Seminole County, an “indivisible” group called Action Alliance for Progress was formed by a former Florida Democrat field organizer. With a mission “Let’s Turn Seminole Blue,” AAFP opened in Longwood in 2017, making a splash by endorsing candidates in Longwood city elections. Their candidates’ victories were framed as a harbinger of a coming blue wave sweeping Seminole County.
Although I felt their celebration was somewhat disingenuous — since the Longwood candidates were not Democrats — winners write history books, and the possibility of a blue wave loomed as the 2018 midterms approached.
Will Seminole turn blue, or is this wave a figment of Democrat imagination? As candidate qualifying is over, I am confident there is no blue wave given the lack of opportunity on the ballot. Seminole Democrats failed to deliver on their promises to recruit candidates.
Democrats fielded no candidate in the District 4 commission race between Amy Lockhart and Joe Durso. In another commission seat, Paul Cooper campaigned for months, raising less than $1,000. I saw his effort and even signed his petition at a library out of empathy. He switched from Democrat to No Party Affiliation as another Democrat, Katrina Shadix, jumped in late. She raised no money before qualifying. Republican Jay Zembower has raised over $100,000 for this seat.
Republican School Board members Karen Almond and Tina Calderone were re-elected without opposition because Democrats had no candidates. In the contested Seminole School Board contests, no Democrats have raised half the funds of their Republican counterparts.
There are three Soil and Water Board District seats open, a perfect place for Democrat candidates to get their feet wet and develop their bench. Not one Democrat is running. Libertarians and NPAs have more candidates running in Seminole than Democrats.
The brightest Democrat hope is winning a couple of School Board races. If lightning strikes twice and they also flip a commission seat despite being outspent by $100,000, this Democrat sweep will produce Republican majorities of 4-1 on the commission and 3-2 on the School Board.
Republicans will likely hold all five commission seats and most or all the School Board. Indivisible groups talk a big game, but no blue wave is coming to Seminole. After all, voters will scarcely find any Democrat candidates to vote for.