Fewer hurricanes forecast
Researchers say colder Atlantic, El Niño likely to form 4 storms
The hurricane risk to the United States has sharply decreased this season, with ocean conditions becoming less favorable for the storms’ formation, according to a closely watched forecast released Monday.
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project now calls for four hurricanes this year, compared with 10 last season; it is a sharp reduction from the university’s April forecast. The probability of a direct hit to the eastern United States stands at 22 percent, compared with the average of 31 percent.
Since hurricane season began June 1, the forecast said, the At- lantic Ocean has developed unusually cold temperatures, depriving developing hurricanes of fuel and the atmospheric instability necessary for their formation. Also, the likelihood has increased for an El Niño, the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that creates high-altitude winds that tear apart would-be tropical cyclones, the rotating storm systems that can strengthen into hurricanes.
“We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity,” states the forecast report. “… With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the
Caribbean has decreased as well.”
The forecast stands in sharp contrast to the university’s April forecast, which called for an aboveaverage hurricane season. That forecast called for three major hurricanes, but the latest forecast calls for one. A major hurricane is one of Category 3 strength or higher, which means wind speeds of at least 111 mph that will cause “devastating damage,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
This forecast also calls for fewer storms than the forecast released just before the start of the season by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which called for five to nine hurricanes. But the NOAA forecast is more than a month old, a significant gap in hurricane sci- ence, because forecasts gain in reliability the closer they come to the season.
This year may not be as quiet as 2013, which produced just two hurricanes. But in general, forecasts agreed that it is unlikely to see a season like last year’s season, which produced two ferocious Category 5 storms, one of which struck Florida.
“It’s good news,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at the university and lead author of the report. “Obviously, it takes just one storm to make it an active season for you. But if I were a betting man, I’d rather have a forecast calling for four hurricanes rather than eight.”
Hurricane Andrew, for example, struck in an otherwise uneventful season.
Supporting Colorado State’s optimistic update of its hurricane forecast was an announcement Monday by AccuWeather Global Weather Center, the private forecasting service, which predicted an El Niño would form in August and September, the peak of hurricane season.
AccuWeather predicted slightly more hurricanes than Colorado State, calling for five or six, with two to four expected to be major hurricanes. And though it said the prediction represents a decrease from the previous forecast, impacts to the United States from hurricanes or tropical storms remain “likely.”
“The number of landfalling storms, both tropical storm and hurricane, is expected to be lower than last year,” lead hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski said. “However, all it takes is one storm or hurricane to highly impact a coastal area and cause catastrophic damage.”