Adapt to flood risks, rising seas

Long before the invading sea reaches our homes, it could upend our region’s economy. And soon.

In just two or three years, Congress may change the way it sets rates in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program to reflect more realistic assessments of risk, including the expected impacts of sea-level rise.

According to the chair of Miami’s Sea Level Rise Committee, FEMA officials believe the largest provider of flood insurance in the United States will be aligning the cost of premiums much closer to the heightened risks of flooding. And that the changes will come sooner than many expect.

The move to so-called “risk-based assessments” will likely jack up the Congress is likely to cost of flood insurance to as much as change the way flood wind-storm insurance “or more” in insurance rates are set the next five to 10 years, said [Wayne] to reflect more realistic Pathman, a Miami attorney who is assessments of risk. also chair of the Miami Beach Chamber of Commerce. He sees rates rising Much of Florida is a 25 percent to 60 percent in the near high-risk area, but we term, and more after that. can minimize the

In high-risk areas — and much of economic threat. Florida is a high-risk area — real estate will get more expensive. The higher costs will ripple through banking, bonding and taxation. It might not be long, Pathman warns, before “30-year mortgages will be a thing of the past.”

Put it together, and investors could start bailing on South Florida long before the waters arrive.

As harsh as the consequences will be for our region, there are sound reasons to reform the federal program, which was created 50 years ago to help people affordably repair their homes after flooding. It is now $24 billion in debt and its authorization to issue new policies is set to end on July 31.

The program’s finances have been battered as floods have become more frequent, damage more extensive, and about 20 percent of the 5 million policyholders pay artificially low premiums that don’t reflect the true likelihood of flood damage.

Against all common sense, those unrealistic rates encourage development in flood-prone zones. More than 30,000 properties have flooded an average of five times each and been rebuilt each time through the National Flood Insurance Program. Some of these properties have been flooded more than 30 times.

At present, the NFIP ties its rate-setting to floodplain maps drawn up by FEMA. But the maps aren’t all that precise. And because the maps are based on historical data, they don’t take into account the heavier storms we’ve been seeing in recent years, let alone predicted increases in the sea level.

The most logical reforms would match premiums more realistically to each property’s flood risk. This would require better maps and more precise assessments. Any reform must also include financial help to ease the sticker shock for lower-income homeowners.

No place will be more susceptible to higher flood-insurance rates than Florida. As the Union of Concerned Scientists recently reported, 64,000 homes statewide will be vulnerable to chronic flooding by 2045 (“chronic” defined as 26 flood events per year). That’s not even 30 years away. These are risk factors that insurers and global investors are already discussing.

It sounds grim. But there are things we can do to minimize the economic threat.

Ideas include a high-resolution map of the city to help developers and homeowners evaluate and adapt to sea-level risk; zoning code modifications; a revised stormwater master plan that factors in rising seas; guidelines and incentives encouraging designers to build more resilient structures; economic and catastrophic modeling; and a strategy for where seawalls could be effectively used as barriers.

If we don’t want insurance rates to dictate our economic future, we must show the markets that we intend to adapt our environment to the more watery world that’s coming.

We’ve done it with hurricanes. We can do it with rising water.