Analysts: Cooler Atlantic may subdue rest of hurricane term

The bad news is that we’re approaching the peak time of the Atlantic hurricane season, that stretch of weeks between midAugust and late October when historically, the biggest and baddest storms have done the most damage.

The good news? The risk of a hurricane striking the United States during the remainder of the summer is lower than average, experts said in an updated seasonal forecast released Thursday.

The conditions needed to stir up hurricanes are lacking, noted Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

One of those conditions is warm ocean temperatures. When the trio of Harvey, Irma and Maria wrought havoc in the busy 2017 season, the waters of the Atlantic region, which also includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, were warmer than average.

That’s not the case this year, Klotzbach and Bell said.

And there’s too much vertical wind shear, they say. Vertical wind shear refers to changes in wind speeds over distances of altitude in the atmosphere.

“It tends to tear apart Klotzbach said.

High atmospheric pressure has lingered over the subtropical and tropical Atlantic since March, Klotzbach said.

This has caused an “increased mixing and churning up of the ocean’s surface, which has caused the ocean to not warm up as it normally does.”

The Colorado State experts now call for five hurricanes in total this year.

Compare that with the 10 hurricanes that the storm,” formed in the 2017 season. Six of those last year, the costliest season on record, attained major hurricane status, meaning their wind speeds exceeded 111 mph.

Because two hurricanes, Beryl and Chris, have already formed and dissipated in 2018, that means the Colorado State experts are expecting another three hurricanes. That’s below the post-July average of 5.5.

Klotzbach and Bell are also predicting nine more named storms this year, which is below the post-July average of 10.5.

In terms of major hurricanes, they are expecting one. That’s also below the postJuly average of two major hurricanes.

The probability of a major hurricane making a direct hit on the United States’ East Coast — including Florida — stands at 20 percent, compared with the average of 31 percent.

And while the conditions that make or break hurricanes can change suddenly in the earlier months of the hurricane season, like June, those sudden and abrupt changes tend to be less likely in August, Klotzbach said.

“I’d really be surprised if anything forms in the Atlantic through the middle of August,” he said.

The forecast also said these “hurricaneunfavorable conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months.”

But as hurricane watchers continually say, it takes only one storm.

For South Florida, the most infamous example is Hurricane Andrew, which was the first named storm of 1992.

There have been three named Atlantic storms this year: Besides hurricanes Beryl and Chris, Subtropical Storm Alberto formed in May. None of these storms was a threat to Florida.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.