Scott, Nelson gird for battle as Senate race begins in earnest
Incumbent starts ad blitz as he works to erase governor’s lead
Hey, remember the Senate race? The campaign for U.S. Senate between Gov. Rick Scott and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson has been churning in the background as the dramatic swings of the Florida governor’s race played out over the summer.
But now, the battle for what could be the pivotal seat for control of the Senate returns, though maybe not as much to the forefront as previously thought.
Nelson, 75, a three-term incumbent senator, is facing the fight of his life after relatively easy re-elections in 2006, a Democratic wave year, and in 2012, when President Barack Obama won re-election.
Despite predictions that 2018 could be a big year for Democrats, Nelson finds himself facing the deep pockets of Scott, 65, a termlimited governor who has never been overly popular but squeaked through the 2010 and 2014 elections by about 1 percent of the vote after spending about $100 million of his own money.
Since announcing his entry into the Senate race, Scott’s campaign and his associated PACs have already spent more than $40 million, releasing ads on an almost weekly basis.
So far, Scott’s spots have called for term limits as a subtle way of reminding voters of Nelson’s long tenure in Washington. It’s a strategy that’s become less subtle as a GOP PAC questioned if Nelson has “caretakers” and is “no longer dealing from a full deck.”
Scott’s early ad blitz has pushed poll numbers in his direction over the course of the summer, with the latest FAU poll showing Scott with 45 percent and Nelson at 39 percent.
But the continuing environmental issues in the states, including the Gulf of Mexico “red tide” and algae blooms in Lake Okeechobee, and ongoing stories about Scott’s finances give Nelson some openings for attacks in the coming weeks.
On Wednesday, with the gubernatorial primaries over and the parties shifting into general election mode, Nelson released his first statewide TV ads, “Oath” and the Spanishlanguage “Juramento.”
In the ads, Nelson cites his military and astronaut experience and talks about
Scott’s early ad blitz has pushed poll numbers in his direction over the course of the summer, with the latest FAU poll showing Scott with 45 percent and Nelson at 39 percent.
how “public office is a public trust.”
The ads act as a sort of introduction of someone seeking a fourth term in the Senate. Nelson’s decision to do that reinforces worries some Democrats have about Nelson’s weak numbers with Hispanics, including decent approval ratings for Scott among Central Florida’s Puerto Rican community.
In a July Mason Dixon poll, Nelson led 44 to 39 percent among Hispanics, but the number of undecided Hispanic voters, 17 percent, was the highest among all subgroups.
An August survey of more than 400 Latino voters in Florida found Nelson with an even smaller advantage over Scott, 44 to 41 percent.
Scott’s relative popularity with Hispanics comes despite his role as one of the first supporters of Donald Trump in the 2016 race, even as other Florida Republicans lined up behind Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.
Just a few years after sticking his neck out for Trump, Scott has been careful to distance himself from a president unpopular among Hispanics for his handling of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico and immigration policies.
But U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis’s full-throated support of Trump after gaining his endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial primary means the president will be a key figure in the campaign moving forward, on both sides.
Susan MacManus, a retired professor of political science at the University of South Florida, said Nelson could also end up benefiting from increased AfricanAmerican and youth turnout with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum on the ballot.
“Gillum’s strength is most effective in urban areas, and Nelson really needed that,” MacManus said. “His strength has been in areas of the state with a larger concentration of older voters who know him. … And anecdotally, Nelson has been struggling with the younger generation.”
Gillum and Nelson have policy differences on issues such as “Medicare for All” and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement — Gillum is for both, Nelson is not — “but it’s probably going to be a shrewd strategy on the part of Nelson and Gillum to appear on stage together, even when their policies are different … because very few people remember policy stances.”
The first such appearance will be Friday in Orlando, when Nelson, Gillum and the party’s state Cabinet nominees Sean Shaw, Nikki Fried and Jeremy Ring will hold a unity event to “celebrate” the 2018 ticket.
MacManus said Scott and DeSantis, though closer ideologically, also will have to deal with dueling election strategies. DeSantis is expected to continue his full embrace of the president, while Scott has kept his distance, apparently hoping to draw more moderate voters.
“Each of the gubernatorial nominees are more staunchly partisan and appeal to a different part of the base than [the Senate candidates],” MacManus said. “And both gubernatorial candidates just can’t stop talking about national politics.”