Tropical Storm Kirk expected to strengthen as it races to Caribbean
Tropical Storm Kirk keeps rolling toward the Caribbean, newly named Subtropical Storm Leslie is spinning in the Atlantic and hurricane center forecasters are keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather off Florida between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could move toward the southeastern U.S. later this week.
The first Sunday of autumn is a busy day in the Tropics.
In its 5 p.m. advisory Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Kirk was racing toward the eastern Caribbean — moving west at 23 mph and located about 645 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Island. The storm continued to pack maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with tropical storm-force winds extending out 70 miles from Kirk’s center.
“Since the system should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into early this weak,” forecasters said. “Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause weakening.”
The storm winds are forecast to reach 60 mph in the next 48 hours and should keep moving west, according to the hurricane center advisory.
A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Kirk should keep steering the storm west, but that ridge is expected to weaken three to four days from now. That should slow the storm’s progress, and a weaken Kirk is forecast to travel past Barbados and St. Lucia and into the Caribbean about 400 miles southeast of Puerto Rico by Friday afternoon.
Earlier Sunday, forecasters said, “Like every other tropical cyclone which has approached the Lesser Antilles from the east this season, Kirk is expected to run into strong westerly shear in 4-5 days, resulting in weakening as the cyclone gets closer to the islands.
“It is possible that Kirk may open up into a trough as it is approaching the Lesser Antilles and moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea, but for now the official forecast maintains Kirk as a tropical storm through day 5.”
Subtropical Storm Leslie, which formed before noon Sunday, is maintaining its maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was located about 1,170 miles westsouthwest of the Azores and moving west at 3 mph, the hurricane center said.
The storm is not expected to last long or impact land.
“No important changes in intensity are anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become absorbed by a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the week,” forecasters said.
Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather located between Bermuda and the Bahamas that should move by the southeastern U.S. coast has a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next five days, the hurricane center said.
That system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, but could see some development.
“The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during the next couple of days,” forecasters said.