FIERCE RACES AWAIT DECISIONS
State data show Democrats overtake Republicans in early, mail vote totals
DTALLAHASSEE emocrats overtook Republicans in early voting and vote by mail on the eve of the midterm elections, the first time the party has led the GOP in doing that since pre-Election Day voting began in Florida in 2004.
It’s a possible sign that Democrats could reverse the party’s trend of lower turnout in non-presidential years.
As of Monday, state data showed Democrats with 2,074,400 votes cast, a 24,523-vote lead over Republicans. Independent and third party voters have cast 983,622 votes so far.
By comparison, Republicans cast 90,670 more votes than Democrats heading into Election Day in 2014, the last midterm elections.
Yet, it’s unknown how much of the getout-the-vote efforts by the Florida Democratic Party and outside groups have merely pushed likely voters who usually vote on Election Day to vote early, which would cannibalize the party’s vote total.
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday. For questions about how to vote or where on Tuesday, check with your county’s supervisor of elections office.
Floridians will elect a U.S. senator, a new governor, three Cabinet members and members of Congress. There are 12 proposed amendments to the state’s constitution involving tax cuts, felon voting rights, voter control of gambling expansion and
whether to end greyhound racing in the state.
The entire state House delegation is up for election, and Orange County voters will pick a new sheriff.
Voter enthusiasm so far has been high, especially for a midterm election.
Through Sunday, more than 5 million Floridians have voted by mail or at early voting precincts – about 39 percent of the state’s 13 million registered voters. That’s a jump from the nearly 3.2 million ballots cast early or by mail ahead of the 2014 midterms — about 27 percent of the electorate at the time.
Democrats crowed about the numbers, saying it’s an indication they have enthusiasm and momentum on their side. Democratic governor nominee Andrew Gillum has gathered throngs of supporters to his rallies in traditional Republican strongholds like Putnam and Pasco counties.
“I said it yesterday and I’ll repeat it today, I’d still rather be us, than them,” said Florida Democratic Party executive director Juan Penalosa.
But at a news conference in Orlando on Monday, Mayor Buddy Dyer said Democrats had “great momentum” but added that recent history shows final margins could be slim for either party.
“Now it’s time to finish,” Dyer said. “Everybody needs to remember, the last two elections we’ve had for governor have been decided by less than a percentage point.”
State Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando, said he was cautiously optimistic about the Democrats’ slim advantage but warned nothing would be decided until polls close Tuesday.
“This is going to be down to the wire, and every vote counts,” he said. “The reality is we’ve seen for the last two election cycles on Election Day itself that Republican voters often exceed Democratic turnout on the same day. It’s all about turnout.”
Polls released Monday showed Democrats at the top of the ticket with an edge over their GOP rivals.
A Quinnipiac survey released Monday showed Gillum with a 7-point lead on DeSantis, and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson with a 7-point lead on Gov. Rick Scott in his re-election bid. An NBC/Marist polled showed Gillum and Nelson with 4 point leads.
Those polls, however, had turnout models with independent voters at 25 percent of the electorate and breaking for Democrats. Early and mail ballot vote totals show independent voters making up 19 percent of the overall vote. If the Election Day turnout matches the early vote makeup, the results could be much tighter.
Republicans remain bullish about their performance on Tuesday.
In Orlando, Ron DeSantis was joined at a rally by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who said, “the choice could not be clearer, especially in Central Florida. Everyone in Central Florida lived somewhere else, and you know why you left those other places? Because of the politics [that] Andrew Gillum wants to bring to the state of Florida.”
DeSantis added, “The future of Florida really is at stake. “Florida will be different if Andrew Gillum is elected, and it will be different for the worse. Why would we want to shoot ourselves in the foot? … I can promise you this, I will fight the good fight, I will finish the race and I will keep the faith on behalf of the people of this state.”
“This is going to be down to the wire, and every vote counts.” State Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando