Odds of tropical system rise to 60%

In a matter of six hours Monday, odds rose to 60% that the disturbance over the Bahamas would become a tropical system by Wednesday as it moves toward Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. update.

If the disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it would be the third named storm of 2019, with the name “Chantal.”

“While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, only a slight increase in the organization of this system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight,” the NHC said.

The disturbance was detected Sunday afternoon and had a 20% chance of tropical development within 48 hours. By 8 a.m. Monday those chances crept up to 30%, but have since ballooned.

“That’s pretty surprising,” said WOFL meteorologist Jayme King. “It was believed that wind shear, the winds in the upper atmosphere, would tear the top of this, giving it a hair cut, and not giving it a chance to grow.”

The disturbance of thunderstorms and rain showers over the central Bahamas, and near Andros Island, is associated with a low area of pressure and is expected to move into Florida waters late Monday night at a speed of 15 mph, the NHC said.

The disturbance is expected to follow a possible curve up the east Florida peninsula and toward the Georgia coast, the NHC said.

Tropical storms commonly develop in the area of space east of the African coast, but since African dust has been drying out the area development in the region has been sparse, King said.

However, meteorologists suspected that areas closer to home may be opportune regions for tropical development, according to King.

The first named storms of 2019, Andrea and Barry, found their roots in the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now is the time to be prepared especially with this wave so close to home,” King said. “It very well could have developed into a tropical storm by tomorrow. We don’t know yet. Anything could happen.”