East River emerging as district front-runner
East River is not in first place in the current Class 7A, District 4 standings, but the Falcons are the favorite to reach the 7A, Region 1 postseason, according to the latest Florida High School Athletic Association playoff rankings announced on Tuesday.
The Falcons rank No. 10 in the region in the FHSAA Rating Percentage Index standings at .503, but have replaced No. 14 Lake Howell as the projected district champion after the Silverhawks lost 14-0 at rival Winter Springs last week.
Lake Howell’s RPI dropped from .545 to .480 entering Friday’s home non-district game vs. Deltona (1-6).
Winter Springs (3-4, 2-0) leads the league and can take the title and secure an automatic playoff berth with a win next week at East River (5-3, 1-1). But with a .424 RPI, the Bears are cast as power-rating underdogs against the Falcons at this point.
Lake Howell (4-3, 1-1) is at Lyman (0-6, 0-2) in the other district game next week.
Should East River and Lake Howell win to create a three-way tie at 2-1, the RPI rankings would determine the district champion.
The RPI factors a team’s winning parentage, the combined win percentage of the teams it plays and the combined win percentage of its opponents’ opponents. The ratings will change each week as new results are factored in.
St. Cloud (5-2, .600) dropped out of the projected playoff picture in 7A, Region 2 after losing 21-16 at Melbourne (7-1, .626), which now holds a slight edge in the race for the final wild-card spot. St. Cloud has a home district game on Friday against Viera (4-2, .653), which tops the district ratings.
Seminole, Edgewater and Jones, the area’s top-ranked teams in the Sentinel Super 16 in that order, are seeded No. 1 in region standings with three weeks to go in the regular season.
Below are the projected playoff pairing for regions with area teams ranked among the top eight spots in Class 8A-4A and the top six spots in 4A-1A. The six postseason spots and seeding for teams in the small classifications are based solely on the RPI standings.
Four automatic playoff berths go to district champions in each large classification region. The remaining four at-large spots — seeded No. 5 through No. 8 — are decided by the RPI numbers at the end of the regular season.
The FHSAA did not provide information on teams that already have won district titles; therefore, pairings and districtchampion projections are based solely on the RPI standings. Osceola (6-1, .591)
Not much has changed for area teams as DP and Osceola remain the favorites to claim one of the top four spots as district champions. Lake Nona replaces Davenport Ridge Community (3-4, .511) at No. 8 after debuting 10th in the region last week. A district-title showdown at Osceola and rivalry game vs. 7A East River (5-3) should keep the Lions in the hunt.
■ No. 8 Tallahassee Chiles (4-3, .558) at No. 1 Edgewater (7-1, .720)
■ No. 7 Crestview (4-3, .586) at No. 2 Niceville (8-0, .677)
■ No. 6 Tallahassee Lincoln (5-2, .634) at No. 3 Orange Park Fleming Island (6-0, .658)
■ No. 5 Wekiva (6-2, .654) at No. 4 East River (5-3, .503)
Edgewater, the District 3 champion, has all but locked up the top seed, with road games remaining at Ocala Forest (3-4) and rival Boone (3-4). Wekiva’s strength of schedule should afford the Mustangs no less than the fifth seed, where they will await whichever team emerges as District 4 winner between East River, Lake Howell (4-3, .480) and Winter Springs (3-4, .424).
■ No. 8 St. Petersburg Northeast (5-2, .531) at No. 1 Tampa Gaither (7-0, .667)
■ No. 7 Gulfport Boca Ciega (6-2, .582) at No. 2 Largo (5-2, .660)
■ No. 6 Lake Minneola (5-2, .607) at No. 3 Spring Hill Springstead (7-0, .653)
■ No. 5 Clearwater (5-2, .649) at No. 4 St. Petersburg Dixie Hollins (6-1, .610)
Lake Minneola maintains its hold at No. 6 with a district clash against Springstead on Oct. 25. They could meet again in the first round. No matter how it plays out, the Hawks appear to be in good position for the postseason, thanks to a sizable RPI advantage over the eighth and final seed entering this week’s game against Ocala Vanguard (4-2).
■ No. 8 Brooksville Nature Coast Tech (4-4, .521) at No. 1 Jones (6-1, .740)
■ No. 7 Ocala Vanguard (4-2, .556) at No. 2 Inverness Citrus (8-0, .645)
■ No. 6 Citra North Marion (6-1, .585) at No. 3 Dunnellon (6-1, .610)
■ No. 5 Bishop Moore (5-3, .589) at No. 4 St. Augustine Menendez (4-3, .521)
Jones is in great position to maintain the No. 1 seed with a wide RPI advantage over Citrus. Bishop Moore is up two spots to No. 5 and appears slated for a favorable matchup in the first round of the playoffs, should it hold off North Marion. Tavares (4-3, .508) sits at No. 9 with a pair of winnable games remaining that bookend a date with Jones on Oct. 25.