Economist predicts strong 2020, but wary of wage amendment

TALLAHASSEE — An economist for Florida’s leading business advocacy group predicted Thursday the state will continue to outpace the nation on key economic measures and add another 200,000 new jobs this year — but warned that a ballot proposal to hike the state’s hourly minimum wage to $15 clouded an otherwise rosy picture.

The mostly bullish outlook was delivered by the Florida Chamber Foundation’s chief economist, Jerry Parrish, during a teleconference.

“The big threat I see coming that will affect Florida’s economy is the impact that a $15 minimum wage will have on our state,” he said. “Increases in the minimum wage sound like a good idea to many people, but what happens in a lot of cases is that it ultimately hurts the very people its supporters claim that it will help.”

Voters in November will decide whether to slowly hike the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026.

Advocates say a hike is necessary to give working people living wages. They argue that the lowestpaid workers earn less today than low-wage earners 50 years ago, despite the dramatic economic growth during that same time.

“It helps people at the bottom who shouldn’t have to work 80 or 90 hours a week to feed their families,” said Ben Pollara, campaign manager for the ballot measure spearheaded by Orlando attorney John Morgan and known as the Fair Wage Amendment.

“When they have more money in their pockets they spend it — so they help the broader economy,” Pollara added.

Other factors could slow the economy, such as trade wars and tariffs that could cause uncertainty in many sectors of the economy, including Florida’s sizable agriculture industries.

But consumer confidence will continue buoy the state’s economy, Parrish said. Parrish said there is only a low risk of a recession this year. At the end of 2019, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.1%, the lowest since 2006.

Florida’s population will continue rising in 2020, perhaps by as many as 900 new residents a day, he said. But there will be plenty of jobs to go around, with nearly 285,000 jobs open.