A shortage of toilet paper? No.
The household staple is a product that is typically made-to-order
If there’s one image that captures the panic seeping through the United States, it might be the empty store shelves where toilet paper usually sits.
Shoppers, preparing for the possibility that the coronavirus could keep them quarantined for weeks or months, have been snapping up every roll they can find. The more images of stockpiling that emerged on social media, the more panicky buying that ensued. The result: The household staple has been consistently out of stock, whether at big box stores, at bodegas or on Amazon.
In an age of instant shopping gratification and same-day delivery, the idea that something so mundane could be unavailable seemed downright scary and an ominous sign that a basic supply chain is under stress because of the pandemic.
But is there really a toilet paper shortage?
Major retailers say
toilet paper hasn’t been out of stock in stores for more than a day or two, or even a few hours. Manufacturers, paper industry executives say, are raising production to meet demand, but there is only so much capacity that they can or are willing to add.
They want to satisfy panic buying without going overboard and creating a glut on the market when the surge subsides.
Unlike some other products, toilet paper is not likely to be used more by Americans who are stricken with respiratory symptoms, even as the coronavirus spreads.
“You are not using more of it. You are just filling up your closet with it,” said Jeff Anderson, president of Precision Paper Converters, a paper product manufacturer with 65 employees outside Green Bay, Wisconsin. “What happens in the summer when demand dries up and people have all this extra product in their homes?”
Anderson’s business focuses on facial tissues, which are also in high demand, and he is paying employees overtime to work longer shifts. “We can’t make as much as they want right now,” he said.
Perhaps more than in its recent past, the paper industry seems well positioned to meet the surging demand. After decades of declining sales, as newspapers and printed documents lost out in the digital age, many manufacturers converted to making tissue products, like toilet paper and wipes. That means there is more manufacturing capacity that can be brought online.
But toilet paper is typically made to order. Because it takes up so much room, storing large quantities is not profitable, so the industry typically has only a few months of inventory on hand.
“There is not some big underground warehouse like in ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark’ where there is all this toilet paper sitting around in case it is needed,” said Dan Clarahan, president of United Converting, which sells manufacturing equipment to tissue companies.
In more normal times, toilet paper demand grows by only a few percentage points each year, mirroring population growth.
Asked about the shortages, many retailers would not commit to a specific timetable for when the shelves would be restocked, calling the situation “fluid.” A retail analyst, Burt Flickinger of Strategic Resource Group, said big box retailers like Costco and BJ’s Wholesale Club have been able to restock most empty shelves within a few hours, or by the next morning, according to his survey of hundreds of stores across the country this week.
Walmart said it was adjusting its supply routes to keep up.