May 3 predicted as Florida’s worst day
Health data experts have modeled the coronavirus’ impact on Florida, including which days the state will see the most deaths and when its hospital resources will be overwhelmed, and predicted about 175 to 180 people dying each day from May 1 through May 7.
According to Wednesday’s update from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, Florida could see between 2,281 and 15,333 deaths, or a median of 6,937 total deaths, from COVID-19 through August 4.
Additionally, Florida is expected to reach its peak resource use on May 2, meaning the state will be using all available resources at its disposal to fight the coronavirus and could experience shortages.
The model says Florida will have a shortage of 917 ICU beds on May 2, and will require 2,090 invasive ventilators to help critical COVID-19 patients breathe.
The model used in these predictions has been dubbed “the Chris Murray Model,” named after the director of the IHME, Dr.
Christopher Murray. The model has gained widespread attention within the past few days and was referenced by Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, during a White House press briefing Sunday.
According to the IHME, the models are based on data on ob
served death rates and account for preventative measures like social distancing implemented at the state level. The models assume social distancing continues through the end of May. They update daily based on the latest data, and could shift as more information becomes available.
During a press conference Wednesday, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said he was confident the model’s predictions are accurate and stressed the importance of social distancing within the county.
“We have data analytics from national, state and local sources that validates that our stay-at-home order is an appropriate strategy to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus here within our community,” he said.
Demings presented maps of predicted hotspots of COVID-19 within Orange County, which showed areas most likely to be hit hardest by the virus, including zip codes 32801, 32822, 32839, 32837, 32824 and 32828. Those cover Orlando’s downtown Orlando core, and the Azalea Park, Edgewood, Lake Nona, Taft and Avalon Park areas.
The next week is pivotal for preparing to curb the spread of the coronavirus, Demings said.
“We know that there’s going to be a surge sometime in the next three weeks, and what we need to do is everybody should heed the stay-at-home-order,” Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer said after Wednesday’s briefing. “The more we can flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals, that’s what’s going to save us.”
“We know Orlando’s two hospital systems are planning to treat between two and three times what their normal capacity would be, and they’re gearing up to do that. If we get four or five times that, then we’re going to be in New York’s shape, which is bad,” he added.
Measures like the stayat-home order are helping mitigate the spread of the coronavirus at the local level, county healthy official Dr. Raul Pino said, and any future preventative steps taken could affect future predictions for the virus’ spread.
“A model is as good as the data that you enter into it, and a model constantly changes,” Pino said.
Nationwide statistics
The IHME’s data predicts the United States will see its single deadliest day from COVID-19 in just over two weeks.
On April 16, 2,607 COVID-19 fatalities are predicted nationwide. The current model predicts the
U.S. could have a median of 93,765 total COVID-19 deaths through August 4.
The country will reach its peak resource use on April 16, with a shortage of 84,671 beds and 18,905 ICU beds nationwide.
During a White House press briefing Tuesday, Birx said as the peak mortality rates nationwide are projected to occur within the next two weeks, individual people should still take measures to protect themselves from the virus.
“That’s the part that we think we can still blunt through the superb medical care that every client is receiving, but also even more stringent people following the guidelines,” Birx said.
At the briefing, Dr. Anthony
Fauci said death rates will continue even as the country improves in its measures to keep the pandemic under control, as “deaths lag.”
The coronavirus could kill between 100,000 and 240,000 people in the U.S. alone, officials said.
“This is the thing that we need to anticipate, but that doesn’t mean that that’s what we’re going to accept. We want to do much, much better than that,” said Fauci.