Experts say peak to come earlier

New projections move height of Florida’s outbreak to April 21

The day when Florida is projected to have its most coronavirus deaths and will be using peak hospital resources is about two weeks earlier than originally calculated, data shows. The data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine released last week said the peak date would be May 3.

Now the date is April 21.

On that day, Florida is projected to see a median of 242 deaths and need more than 2,000 ventilators and about 2,500 ICU beds, which is about 800 short of what is currently available, the data says. The range for number of deaths on April 21 is between 88 and 569.

Projections say the state could run out of ICU beds by April 14.

The data also shows Florida should have enough hospital beds overall: about 13,000 are projected to be used out of 20,000.

The total number of fatalities for Florida through Aug. 4 is about 170 fewer than originally calculated with about 6,800. The range is between 3,600 and 11,200.

Nationwide, the peak date for deaths and resources is expected to be April 15. The U.S. is projected

to have a median of 81,766 deaths, which is about 12,000 fewer than projected last week.

According to the IHME, the models are based on data on observed death rates and account for preventative measures like social distancing implemented at the state level. The models assume social distancing continues through the end of May. They update daily based on the latest data, and could shift as more information becomes available.

The data has been touted by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, during White House briefings. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said Monday that local hospital systems are analyzing similar data to help determine when the virus could peak in Central Florida.

“They are working on a predictive model that will be used to validate what has been done by this national organization. Whether it’s the 21st [of April] or sometime thereafter, we can’t say with certainty,” Demings said. “If the 21st is the date we will peak, perhaps in some ways the sooner we peak, the sooner we can begin to recover.”

Demings said helping lower the peak’s strain on local health system is important.

“We are just hoping that many of the provisions that are being put in place now will minimize the whip of that peak or surge within our communities,” he said.

Dr. Raul Pino, the state’s health officer in Orange County, said the models will change from week to week, but it’s clear the peak will arrive sometime between late April and the beginning of May.

“The thing with modeling is it will change every time you enter new data,” Pino said. “Other places have seen multiple peaks.”

That’s why, he said, social distancing will remain important for some time. The community can not let its guard down at the first sign of a decline in cases, he said.

As of Monday morning, Florida had more than 13,000 COVID-19 cases and 230 deaths. Nationwide there were nearly 340,000 cases and more than 10,000 deaths.

PEAK