Experts: Record death numbers won’t end soon

For the third straight day, a record number of COVID-19 deaths were reported in Florida on Thursday, and public health officials say they don’t expect that to change any time soon.

The seven-day average number of deaths continues its upward trend and will continue to do so in the coming weeks, say experts who have long cautioned that deaths would lag behind the spike in cases.

“The new deaths today would not trigger me to say that there’s an emergency today that wasn’t there before. I do think this is a snapshot of what happened a month ago,” said Dr. Robert Cook, professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida.

The number of coronavirus cases in Florida began increasing in late June and reached a high of 15,000 by mid-July. Even though the number of cases in Florida

has flattened and is trending down, the state continues to report the highest daily average of COVID-19 cases in the nation, ahead of California and Texas.

“The death rate follows the positivity rate, sometimes by several weeks, sometimes by more than that, because it depends on those individuals contracting [the virus] and how they interact with the higher risk people,” said Dr. Jay Wolfson, senior associate dean of the Morsani College of Medicine at USF.

On Thursday, nearly two weeks after the peak of cases in Florida, the state reported 253 new deaths, following 216 on Wednesday and 186 on Tuesday, disproving Gov. Ron DeSantis’ assertions that the spread of coronavirus among mostly young Floridians doesn’t have major ramifications.

“That was an unfortunate and missed opportunity, because [young people] are the ones who carry and spread the virus,” Wolfson said.

The virus continues to take its heaviest toll on older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

Those 65 years old make up more than 80% of all COVID-19 deaths in Florida. Among 85 and older adults, more than 11,000 have been infected and 2,100 of them have died, according to the Florida Department of Health.

Similar trends are present in Central Florida counties.

One-third of COVID-19 deaths in Lake County have been in adults between 65 and 74 years old.

In Orange County, a third of all deaths are among people between 75 and 84 years old. People older than 85 make up 25% of the deaths.

In Osceola County, about a third of COVID deaths are among those between 75 and 84 years old. Another third is among those 65 to 74 years.

In Seminole County, 43% of COVID deaths have been among those 85 years and older, while a third among those 75 to 84 years old.

“Everyone is aware that there are higher death rates, a greater chance of dying, over the age of 65. But it’s not clear that it’s age per se that makes a difference. Most of the individuals who have died have had some identifiable risk factor or co-morbid condition,” said Dr. Rodger MacArthur, professor of medicine in division of infectious diseases at Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University.

For younger adults, obesity is proving to be a major risk factor. But uncertainties remain.

“We’ve had many older survivors, up into their 80s and beyond … and then we’ve had young people die. It’s really very, very hard to predict who is at highest risk of dying,” said MacArthur.

The one bright spot has been the development of treatment protocols for COVID patients. The antiviral drug remdesivir, convalescent plasma and steroids have proven to help hospitalized patients survive the infection.

“The really, really, really sick people have a chance of not dying,” said Wolfson. “My greater hope is that we will have better treatments before we have a universal vaccine.”

But Wolfson worried about the mounting evidence that shows lingering side effects of the infection. Those who get sick may retain some of issues related to the infection, and those who had no symptoms but were infected may develop new chronic conditions like heart, lung or kidney disease.

Public health experts also say absent proper mitigation efforts, including wearing masks and practicing social distancing, there could be another spike in cases and deaths in the fall when schools and colleges reopen.

“We’ve passed the tipping point. We can’t just sit back and say ‘Well it’ll run its course.’ It’ll run over us if we don’t take control of our lives, our families, our communities and our responsibilities more than we have,” said Wolfson.