Peak of hurricane season arrives
Height of tropical storms typically this week in historic year
The Atlantic basin has been bubbling with action with an excess of tropical activity during a record setting year and the peak of which is spinning around the corner.
While tropical storm and hurricane activity accelerate during the months of August, September and October, it’s Sept. 10 that is typically observed to be the height of tropical storm production, which already looks higher this season than previous years, said Michael Brennan, a branch chief at the National Hurricane Center.
“We’ve already been extremely busy in tropics,” he said. “This year we’re forecast to see more tropical activity, so it stands that we may have a busier September then usual.”
From mid-August through mid-October, tropical activity spikes, accounting for 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the Category 1 and 2 hurricane spawns and 96% of the major hurricane spawns, according to the National Oceanic and At
mospheric Administration.
Brennan calls this the “tropical window,” which opens in the east and closes in the west. At the start of the season, the eastern Atlantic opens up to warm waters and low wind sheer - a nice place for hurricanes to begin spiraling. As the season goes on into September, that window extends further into the western Atlantic giving plenty of room and opportunities for hurricanes to breathe. As October and November come most of the Atlantic begins to cool down, but western waters in the Caribbean remain a warm refuge for tropical activity. The activity has less time to develop in warm waters as the season approaches the end, but the threat of tropical storms comes closer to home here in Florida, Brennan said.
That’s what a typical hurricane season looks like, but this year has been atypical as meteorologists are preparing for a historic observance in tropical activity this year.
NOAA’s forecast for the 2020 season exceeded all forecasts recorded in previous years with a prediction of an estimated 19 to 25 storms.
By the month of September and in an average hurricane season, meteorologists will usually record six named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane, otherwise known as a storm with maximum sustained winds greater than 111 mph, Brennan said. In 2020 so far, the NHC has recorded 17 named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana - Category 4 Hurricane Laura in late August.
“We’ve had three hurricane landfalls (Hanna, Isaias and Laura) already. We’ve had a lot of systems affecting the United States, already. Florida has escaped unscathed, so far. That doesn’t mean our luck will continue. Residents must be prepared. There’s still a threat. Especially in South Florida where sooner or later into the season, a storm could be coming out of the Caribbean. Don’t let your guard down just because we’ve been OK so far.”
Laura hit the Louisiana coastline with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph on Aug. 27 bringing huge storm surge and massive destruction. At least 16 people lost their lives as a result of the storm, but total deaths and damages are still being assessed.
Central Florida meteorologist Jayme King urges people to remember that while Sept. 10th is the statistical date where meteorologists typically see the most tropical activity, dates beyond it are not free of hurricanes.
“September is the peak of season, the whole month is when people have got to be on their toes. We don’t limit storms to one day,” said King of FOX 35. “The peak is right now through the remainder of the month where elements come together to bring an upswing in tropical activity. Water temperatures are at their highest right now.”
As the peak of season tiptoes closer, weather in western America could influence tropical events, King said. Colorado is predicted to observe a cold front during the week, the trough from that event could either deflect incoming tropical storms or attract them.
“We could see an unseasonable cold front where there may be snow in Colorado,” he said. “Hard to say what effect that will have on us, but it’s something we have to keep monitoring as the trough gets closer to us it could attract tropical systems like a magnet,” he said.
The season has already seen a number of records broken in 2020. The first came early with Tropical Storm Cristobal in late May, which broke the record for the earliest “C” named storm before the start of hurricane season on June 1. It was the third storm of the year - all three storms had a direct impact on the United States.
On July 22, another record was broken with the development of Tropical Storm Gonzalo as the seventh named storm of the season - making it the earliest development of a “G” named storm in the Atlantic Basin.
The latest, Tropical Storm Rene, which is projected to become a hurricane in the mid-Atlantic by Thursday, formed 11days faster than the previous record for a 17th named storm in 2005.
With so many named storms, and more predicted to come, meteorologists will begin using letters of the Greek alphabet to designate storms after the 21st storm is named. The only other year this happened was in 2005, which was the infamous season that observed hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. The season had a total of 31 storms, 28 of them named storms, leading up to Tropical Storm Zeta in late December of that year.
To be clear, more storms does not mean more landfalls or that Florida is in any immediate risk, King said, but more storms does up the odds of Florida having to brace itself for an incoming tropical system.
“If you live in an evacuation zone, you need to have an escape plan. Now is the time to prepare.” King said. “More storms doesn’t mean more landfalls, but it does mean there’s a higher chance of landfall. These storms are getting produced, and anything can happen. People need to be aware of that.”