The answer to Demings’ Orange sales-tax hike is still no
We’ve all heard the old trope about doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results.
With a proposal to return a twice-rejected sales-tax initiative to the ballot in 2024, the Orange County Commission would be retreating from that principle — in the wrong direction, by doing an even worse job of proposing a one-penny increase in its sales-tax rate to local voters who just said no.
The need is undeniable. As COVID restrictions vanish, congestion is returning to local roads. It can still take hours to use public transportation from tourism-oriented west Orange County to the neighborhoods where the thousands of low-income workers who serve that industry can afford to live. And there is — as there was last year — the prospect of luring billions in federal transit dollars. That window won’t remain open forever.
But none of that really matters if voters are highly likely to say no. Let’s face reality.
“What are we going to do differently this time?” Commissioner Maribel Gomez Cordero asked. She joined commissioners Nicole Wilson, Mayra Uribe and Emily Bonilla in bringing forward the fatal flaws that clearly contributed to the 2022 “no” vote. None of their points were really acknowledged, let alone addressed at Tuesday’s county commission meeting on Tuesday. Even those who supported Mayor Jerry Demings’ desire to put this on the 2020 ballot saw issues that need to be addressed.
Among them:
■ Voters saw this tax as a benefit for future development, not current needs.
Wilson said residents in her district would see most of the early spending from the tax increase go toward new roads: “When we talked to residents, there was very little we could bring forward that would be for them.” In particular, there was nothing for MetroWest on the map of improvements to public transit and existing roads. Residents have no desire to tax themselves to subsidize developers building houses
most local residents will never be able to live in.
■ There’s no time to change the minds of residents who remember saying “no”
in 2022. Both Uribe and Michael Scott brought this forward. “This discussion should have come three or four months ago,” Scott said. We think he’s off by more than a year: If the board really wanted to pursue this, they should have made the decision by mid-November 2022. Starting now gives the county a scant two months to get it to the state for a required analysis,
and nine months to mount a campaign.
■ Few voters believe the economy is better now. There’s no doubt that this initiative failed in large part because— as Wilson and others pointed out — it would hit voters who feel they can’t bear even one more penny’s worth of financial stress. Property taxes, insurance costs, housing costs: All of these have worn away at household finances over the past two years. Backers may argue that tourists will pay more than half of the dollars raised by this tax, but local voters clearly weren’t swayed by that in 2022: They were worried about the money that will come out of their own pockets. They still are. ■ This could impact other tax propositions
on the ballot. That includes a half-penny that Orange County relies on to keep up with demand for classrooms and resources to meet its ever-growing student population, city bond referenda and, potentially, even Seminole County’s extension of its penny infrastructure tax — since voters there are likely to see negative reaction to Orange County’s proposal.
■ Residents have no reason to trust the county to keep its promises. We laud Uribe for having the guts to say this out loud, and it’s true: The very fact that this is under discussion again, on the very next ballot after they said no, is likely to raise voters’ ire.
The response by County Mayor Jerry Demings to each of these objections was telling; several times he attempted to argue that barriers were overstated. However, he later told reporter Steve Hudak that he had big obstacles to overcome before he could get m commissioners on board. He’s right.
Here’s what we heard. The majority of the County Commission sees nearly insurmountable flaws in Demings’ plan for putting the sales tax on the 2024 ballot, based on valid observations that can’t be overcome in the time remaining.
We certainly understand Demings’ sense of urgency. In a perfect world, moving these critical projects forward whenever possible would be the right call, but given the obstacles, there is no point in wasting time and energy pursuing a 2024 vote. And another failure will only put a 2026 push out of reach as well.
Without a plan to address the the 2022 failures, the best choice is to pull the plug – and start the planning for a future ballot.