Raiders clinging to sliver of playoff hope
The Raiders haven’t been officially eliminated from the playoffs — it only feels that way after their gut-wrenching loss at home to the Chargers.
Statistics and projections website FiveThirtyEight gives the Raiders a 2% chance at sneaking into the playoffs after the loss Thursday night. The New York Times’ projection is more bullish at 6%.
Even if the Raiders win out, FiveThirtyEight gives them just a 9% chance of getting the necessary results to move up into one of three AFC wild-card berths.
Coach Jon Gruden said Friday he and his team will remain motivated to make the playoffs until they are mathematically eliminated.
“Anybody that doesn’t think we’re still in this is mistaken. We still need some things to go our way. It would help if some of these officiating calls would go our way too. But we’ve got to keep playing,” Gruden said.
“We’ve got to find a way to win our eighth game. If we can win our eighth game and get a little help from around the league we
can stay in it until the final week of the season like we were last year. We’ve got to keep true to ourselves, stay with the process and good things will happen.”
The Raiders won’t be eliminated Sunday, even if the Ravens, Colts, Browns, Titans and Dolphins all win. Gruden can still hold that sliver of hope over the players as a carrot in practice next week.
But a loss to Miami next Saturday would eliminate the Raiders from contention.
Technically, the Raiders could lose another game and still make the playoffs. If they beat Miami and lose to Denver, they could still sneak in
at 8-8 if they end up in a tie with the right team or teams, though the odds of such a scenario are below 1 percent, according to both projection sites.
Winning both remaining games opens up several paths for the Raiders, but they’d likely end up tied with someone else at 9-7. A twoteam tie with the Browns would result in the Raiders moving ahead after their win in Cleveland earlier this year.
Similarly, a tie with the Colts would leave them out after last week’s loss. Next Saturday’s game with the Dolphins will decide who carries that tiebreaker in the event of a two-way deadlock.
A three-way knot brings in more tiebreakers, likely to be determined by conference record — all five
teams in question within a game.
Of course, the tiebreaker scenarios will likely be moot for the Raiders, who must gain ground against teams who have easier games remaining.
QB SITUATION » Whether Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota play against the Dolphins won’t be determined until next week.
Gruden said it was “5050” and said he was being “conservative.”
A source told NFL Network that Carr’s groin injury is “significant” and carries with it a 10-14 day recovery period. If Carr isn’t on the field when practice resumes next Tuesday, he probably won’t play.
If Carr can’t play, the Raiders will start Mariota, who Gruden called “spectacular”
are
in the loss to the Chargers while completing 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown and rushing nine times for 88 yards.
While Carr may not play, the Raiders could get a lot of players back, including defensive end Clelin Ferrell (shoulder), linebacker Nick Morrow (concussion), cornerback Damon Arnette (concussion) and safety Johnathan Abram (concussion).
Hunter Renfrow went into concussion protocol after leaving the game following a helmet-to-helmet hit on a punt return and has a shot to return given the extended break after a Thursday game. Henry Ruggs III, on the COVID-19 list, has a chance to return as well.