January rain might not be enough
CHICO » Despite some rain through the first days of 2021, water analysts have warned much more is needed to offset many months of drought in the north state.
Active stormy weather Monday led to warnings from National Weather Service Sacramento about impacts on traffic and newly burned areas of the state, following another wetter week. Forecasts for the north state Monday were confident in snowfall at 4,000 feet and higher into Monday evening, with eight to 16 inches of snow possible. Heavier rainfall, up to 1.5 inches in the valley and up to two inches in the foothills, also prompted concern about slick roads and flooding in areas with ash and debris from fire, such as in the North Complex burn scar.
Although this storm could be followed with more snow and rain Wednesday, concern remains that precipitation levels are not meeting the needed amount to begin to impact months of drought.
Current data from the state’s Department of Water Resources shows this water year is barely approaching precipitation levels seen in dry years like the 20182019 period, even with a wet start to January. And the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shows overall, the California drought is expected to persist for the next month, although some precipitation is helping to improve water levels the north state.
In the Department of Water Resources’ first Phillips Station snow survey of the season on Dec. 30, 30.5 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 10.5 inches were recorded — which is 93% of the Jan. 1 average for this location. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast.
“While conditions were positive at Phillips Station, statewide the snowpack is just 52% of average for this date,” according to a release from the department. DWR’s electronic readings from 130 stations placed throughout the state are showing overall snowpack at five inches, or 52% of the Dec. 30 average, and at only 19% of reaching the needed average snowpack by April 1.
“The snow survey results reflect California’s dry start to the water year and provide an important reminder that our state’s variable weather conditions are made more extreme by climate change,” DWR Director Karla Nemeth said. “We still have several months left to bring us up to average, but we should prepare now for extended dry conditions.”
The Sierra Nevada snowpack supplies an average of 30 percent of California’s water needs, and the department noted climate change is affecting California’s snowpack as more precipitation falls as rain and less as snow.
“( The) survey brought a first glimpse of how the state’s snowpack is shaping up, but there is a lot of winter still ahead,” Sean de Guzman, chief of DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Section said. “While the dry conditions during late summer and fall have led to a below average snowpack, it is still encouraging to have the amount of snow we already have with two of the three typically wettest months still to come.”
The department’s Northern Sierra and Central Sierra reporting locations are both at 56% as of Monday. National Weather Service Sacramento Meteorologist Eric Kurth said while “We’re certainly below normal, substantially,” there is still time for making up rainfall in the “make or break” months of January and February.
Just because the winter season is currently seeing some wet storms does not mean the period of drought for the north state is receding. At this time current precipitation levels are barely surpassing the record set in the 2014-2015 season, considered the worst point for the statewide drought in the last decade.
More storm systems are expected in the coming weeks, although “none of them look really large.” Kurth added it helps to have January begin with some wetness, when in previous years since 2018, precipitation arrived much later in the season. He also compared the season to 20192020, when precipitation looked promising at first but then “f lattened out” into a long period of dryness through much of 2020.
“We’re at that crossroads point where the next month or so is really key,” he said. “We could go either way at this point.”
However, he could not comment on whether some storms this year will begin to address the damage to the landscape from extended periods of drought after a devastating year of record- breaking fires throughout the state.
As of Monday, another system is projected to bring rain and snow chances to the area for Wednesday, with additional rain and snow expected to follow Friday.