Models project record lows this time next month
COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to tumble Thursday in California, and state models are increasingly bullish on its outlook in the pandemic.
With 5,525 new cases reported Thursday, according to data compiled by The Mercury News, California’s average over the past week fell to its lowest point since the first week of November, while the number of Californians hospitalized with COVIDfell below 6,000 for the first time since prior to Thanksgiving.
California’s cases have declined 87% from last month’s peak and been cut by more than half in the past two weeks. Hospitalizations have fallen 73% from last month’s peak and by 43% in the past two weeks, to an active total of 5,934, as of Wednesday, according to state data.
By this time next month, according to state models, there could be fewer Californians hospitalized than any other time in the pandemic’s record books, which date back to the final days of last March. By March 24, active hospitalizations will have fallen below 2,000, according to the state models, and within a week after that, the total is projected to fall close to 1,000.
For nearly 11 months, a minimum 2,000 Californians at any one time have been hospitalized for COVID-19. The only period of the pandemic on record in California with fewer than 2,000 active hospitalizations came during the first four days of record-keeping, from March 29 to April 1 of last year.
To reach the projected total next month, California’s hospitalizations would have to fall by another 82%.
As transmission falls, hospitalizations have followed.
When Cal i fornia launched its updated modeling tool in the second week of December, the reproductive rate of the virus in the state was 1.2, meaning a single infected person would spread the virus to an average of more than one other person, a formula for exponential growth.
As a region, the Bay Area’s improvement has been slightly outpaced by the state. Cases in the region have fallen approximately 83% from last month’s peak and 47% in the past two weeks. Southern California is averaging onetenth of the cases from its peak last month, including a 55% decline in the past two weeks.
DEAR AMY >> I currently am wrestling with several serious food allergies. Lab bloodwork has just revealed an autoimmune disorder. I am scheduled to see a rheumatologist in two months.
My body is thrown into a vicious cycle for weeks after consuming foods that trigger allergies.
So, what should I do when I get together with friends or family for dinners and they try to make special food for me? I don’t want to risk even trying this food because of past experiences with bad reactions.
Recently, a host assured me that all of the ingredients were safe for me, only to learn later that they’d buttered the pan with margarine, which set off my allergies.
They just don’t understand how I have to pay for eating even a trace of that for the next three weeks, but they feel bad because I can’t eat what they eat, and they love food so much that they want to share it with me.
What I prefer to do is bring my own food, but of course people are either very offended or feel so sorry for me that they will try to make something just for me.
I try to avoid dinner parties at all costs with certain people because of this.
What can I say to people who insist I try their food because they made it just for me and they made sure they didn’t put anything in it that I can’t have?
I’m tired of being sick and tired of offending people.
— Sick and Tired
DEAR SICK AND TIRED
>> It is hard to imagine a person with an undefined autoimmune disorder gathering with others for dinner parties during a pandemic, but, in the absence of that concern, you need only know this: You are responsible for your health and well-being. Don’t leave something so important to someone else.
Your question is full of anticipation and speculation regarding how others will (or might) respond to your self- advocacy. Don’t concentrate so much on how others might pressure you, and keep your focus on your own health.
The answer is that you must bring your own food to gatherings involving food, because you can only safely eat something that you have prepared. Communicate with the host beforehand: “I am on an extremely restricted medical diet because of my allergies, so I need to bring my own food. Will that bother you? I really don’t want to impose or make a big deal about it, but until I get my diagnosis sorted out, it is vital that I only eat food I’ve prepared myself.”
If you feel pressured, respond, “Sorry, no. I know this is a bummer and I appreciate your efforts, but I have to be very strict about this.”
If your friends and family don’t or won’t adjust to your needs, then yes, you will have to avoid situations where you can’t safely resist this pressure.