Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Packer Plus
GAME ANALYSIS It’s time for Packers to ride Jones to finish line
Green Bay — Matt LaFleur has done an excellent job of managing Aaron Jones’ workload to help ensure the injury-prone running back would be healthy when the games counted most.
Now we’re at the point of the season where the games count most. With a first-round playoff bye at stake Monday night at the Minnesota Vikings, it’s time for LaFleur to ride the Green Bay Packers’ best play-maker. This is what all the load management was for.
Though LaFleur is in his first season with the Packers, he well knew Jones’ injury history coming into the season. Jones had sustained three MCL tears in his first two seasons with the team, plus missed substantial time in training camp his second season and this year because of hamstring injuries.
So LaFleur had good reason to be careful not to overexpose Jones to injury at the most punishing position in the NFL, even if it must have been tempting to feed Jones the ball more.
After getting 13 touches (all runs) Sunday in the Packers’ win over Chicago, including scoring on an impressive 21-yard touchdown run, Jones is averaging 16.6 touches (13.4 runs and 3.2 receptions) while sharing time at running back with Jamaal Williams (10.6 touches a game).
That’s a relatively light load compared to some of the other top backs in the league. Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey, for instance, is averaging 25.6 touches, Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette 23.1, Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb 21.8.
LaFleur’s approach has worked. The Packers are 11-3, Jones hasn’t missed a game, and he’s as healthy as the Packers could have dreamed with two weeks left in the regular season.
But now it’s the home stretch, and there’s a lot at stake in the Packers’ final two games even though they’ve clinched a playoff spot.
The Packers will finish as the No. 2 seed in the NFC by winning their last two games, and they would finish first if San Francisco and Seattle each loses once in the final two weeks. The No. 2 seeding, which is well within the Packers’ reach, could be huge, because the top two seeded teams get a first-round playoff bye.
How valuable is that? In the last six years both Super Bowl participants had a first-round bye. Going back to the first year (1990) of the six-team playoff format, at least one of the two Super Bowl teams had a first-round bye every year.
A bye of course guarantees nothing, and a big reason teams seeded first or second often make it to the title game is they’re really good. They’ve proven that in the regular season.
Still, the first-round bye has great practical advantage for health reasons alone. With a bye, players aren’t exposed to injuries in a week when other teams’ players are, and starters playing through injury get a week off to heal.
There’s also the guaranteed home field in the divisional round of the playoffs, which could be especially important for the 2019 Packers. Just think about the difference for them playing the explosive, warm-weather New Orleans Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs in cold and blustery Lambeau
Field, as opposed to the raucous and climate-controlled Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
So while the Packers’ showdown at 10-4 Minnesota next Monday isn’t literally a playoff game, it’s nearly as important. To get that valuable first-round bye, the Packers have to win this game.
That means it’s time to worry about injuries to Jones no more. He’s the Packers’ most dynamic player with the ball in his hands, and they need to get him the ball at least 20 times, and probably more like 25 – both as a runner and on swing passes and checkdowns in the passing game. The more he touches the ball, the more chances he gets to bring some consistency to the Packers’ choppy offense, and to break off a big play that can change a game.
Extra points
❚ Rashan Gary has not had a promising rookie year, but the first-round draft pick showed something on his secondquarter sack of Mitch Trubisky. Gary has been a one-trick pony as a rusher, with the bull rush basically his only move. But on this sack – his second of the season – he used a rip move to get underneath right tackle Cornelius Lucas III and turn the corner to drop Trubisky for the loss. Lucas looked like he was ready for a bull rush, and rightly so, but Gary surprised him with the rip move. On the next play Gary tried a crossover move on Lucas, and though it didn’t work he at least is trying new pass-rush moves instead of just defaulting to the bull rush every time.
❚ Tyler Ervin’s contributions in the Packers’ return game shows the value of churning the roster during the season to fill an important niche. In his second game with the Packers, Ervin had another big day Sunday that included a 45yard kickoff return, the Packers’ longest of the season. The Packers failed to take advantage of the great field position, but the explosive dimension Ervin has brought to the Packers’ previously punchless return game – he had one punt return for 12 yards Sunday – could make a difference before the season is finished.