Study finds Green Bay had the second-best drafting efficiency

Thompson had notable drafts early in last decade

A new study on drafting efficiency from Football Outsiders paints a pretty picture of the work done by former Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson.

The work, done by Benjamin Ellinger, looked at every team’s draft capital and draft return between 2010 and 2019 to establish an overall “efficiency,” or a look at how well a team is creating value in the draft given specific resources.

The Packers finished second in the NFL in drafting efficiency over the 10-year sample size, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers created 120 percent of draft value given their draft capital over the decade.

Thompson was the general manager for the Packers during eight of the 10 drafts, and he hit several home runs early in the decade. Six of Thompson’s eight drafts created 100 percent value or more, including 178 percent in 2010, 206 percent in 2013 and 139 percent in 2017.

In terms of total draft return, the Packers ranked fourth overall, trailing only the Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Packers got the most value of any team during the 2013 draft, a class that produced Pro Bowlers Eddie Lacy, David Bakhtiari and Micah Hyde. Overall, the Packers had a top-five draft class in terms of total return three times (2010, 2013, 2014).

Thompson got impressive value and return out of the draft even though he didn’t have high draft picks or the need to draft a young quarterback like the Seahawks, Ravens and Dallas Cowboys.

The numbers are less kind to current general manager Brian Gutekunst. He has created value below 100 percent each of his first two drafts, including only 69 percent value in 2019, but that can change quickly if high picks such as Josh Jackson, Rashan Gary and Jace Sternberger contribute more (adding more value) in future seasons.

However, earlier seasons should remain relatively stable, cementing Thompson’s status as one of the NFL’s best drafters during the early part of the decade. His ability to maximize the draft helped the Packers become one of the most competitive and consistent teams of the 2010s.