LAUREL’S PICKS
Hello from my side of the red carpet, everyone. Before we get started, in case anybody is asking, “Laurel, who are you wearing?”: This year my ensemble combines pieces from J. Crew and Eddie Bauer. My sparkly costume bling is from Target, Anthropologie, and J. Crew. And now, after hours upon hours of sitting in the dark, on to the predictions.
BEST PICTURE — Quite frankly, some of the nominees in this category baffled me. On the one hand, 2014 gave us the delightfully offbeat Grand Budapest Hotel , the audacious and unconventional Birdman , and the touching time machine of Boyhood . On the other hand, I considered walking out of two films on this list: The Theory of Everything — which, Eddie Redmayne’s performance aside, felt like a highproduction-values Lifetime Movie of the Week — and American Sniper , a box-office phenom that humanizes an American soldier without being political but that in the home-front scenes is dull, old-fashioned, and vaguely sexist. (It also eventually overwhelmed me with the feeling that war is inherently pointless and tragic — though I’m not at all sure that was Clint Eastwood’s intent.) Selma has an important story to tell, and it’s a fine, solid, sweeping — albeit conventional — historical drama. The Imitation Game is highly entertaining and engaging, but its rendering of Alan Turing’s story suffers from too much Hollywood gloss. It will come down to Birdman , the masterful and dark show-biz comedy, and Boyhood , which is both daring and a darling of the critics. But Academy members aren’t critics. SHOULD WIN: Boyhood WILL WIN: Birdman
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE — How did the Academy overlook David Oyelowo’s powerful, moving performance as MLK and Timothy Spall for his dialed-in grunts-and-all portrayal of J.M.W. Turner? Even if those gentlemen had been rightfully included, they’d still be facing an uphill battle against the two front-runners, Michael Keaton ( Birdman ) and Eddie Redmayne ( The Theory of Everything ). Keaton is stunningly manic and on-point in a role that was practically written for him, but I give the edge to Redmayne, who transformed himself into a genius succumbing to and living with a debilitating illness. He has also taken home a Golden Globe and a SAG award, so the odds are in his favor. Steve Carell turns creepy up to 11 in Foxcatcher , but his character lacked nuance, and that prosthetic nose was distracting. For the third year in a row, Bradley Cooper has made us forget he’s a former “Sexiest Man Alive”
DIRECTING — Much has been made of the snubbing of director Ava DuVernay ( Selma ), which some have suggested is indicative of gender and/or racial bias (DuVernay would have been the first African-American woman nominated for this category). Or maybe it was the LBJ controversy? But now that as many as 10 films can make it to the Best Picture short list (while the nominees for Best Director are limited to five), someone behind a Best Picture nominee is always going to get snubbed. What is odd, though, is the nod to Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher , which was not nominated for Best Picture — the first time this has happened since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to 10. All that said, I think this race is really between Alejandro González Iñárritu and Richard Linklater. Odds are the award will go to Iñárritu, who took home the Directors Guild Award, though my heart belongs to Linklater for his sheer dedication and consistency of vision. SHOULD WIN: Richard Linklater, Boyhood WILL WIN: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
by turning in a solid performance, but I don’t think this is his time. Yet. WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE — This one isn’t even really a contest. Not to belittle the performances of Julianne Moore’s fellow nominees, all of which were strong, memorable, and finely tuned — I’ve got soft spots for Reese Witherspoon, largely because she is so honest and moving, and Rosamund Pike, who is icy perfection — but Moore ( Still Alice ) is masterful. She brought an amazing, often wordless, subtlety to the film: As her character’s condition worsens, the contours of her face seem to actually change, and her eyes grow dull. Moore also has pre-Oscar momentum (a Golden Globe and BAFTA and SAG awards, among others). She’s been nominated and denied five times during her career, but this year, I’m sure she’ll bring home the statuette. SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Julianne Moore, Still Alice book published from now on. As Jonathan said in his original review, it should be required viewing, whether you think Edward Snowden is a hero or a traitor. CONSPICUOUSLY ABSENT: Life Itself SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Citizenfour
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM —Everyone assumed The Lego Movie would be a top contender in this category, and then came the nomination-morning shock that it hadn’t even made the cut, despite having some of the highest domestic box-office returns in 2014. Song of the Sea is pretty but aims a little too young. Princess Kaguya obviously can’t just be shrugged off — it’s typically beautiful work from Isao Takahata, a founder of Studio Ghibli. Big Hero 6 is fun and imaginative, but it has some conceptual and storytelling flaws I can’t overlook. I give Dragon the edge. SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: The Lego Movie WILL WIN: How to Train Your Dragon 2
RANDOM ROUNDUP — This ain’t a horse race, but my money’s on… FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Gracefully beautiful and unforgiving in its critique of religious extremism, Timbuktu is garnering all sorts of international acclaim. My favorite in this race, though, is the grand, scathing social satire Leviathan . COSTUME DESIGN: The otherwise-mediocre Maleficent boasts some extravagant designs, and Into the Woods impressed with its extensive collection of fairy-tale outfits. In my opinion, though, neither holds a candle to Milena Canonero’s work in The Grand Budapest Hotel . CINEMATOGRAPHY: Mr. Turner is as visually perfect as a movie can be — you could freeze the film at almost any moment and have a gorgeous still worthy of a museum wall. Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel are going to put up some stiff competition, though. PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mr. Turner and Into the Woods both deserve to be in this category. But for me, The Grand Budapest Hotel is the clear winner. VISUAL EFFECTS: This is — rather obviously, if you look at the list of nominees — the one category in which action and superhero blockbusters make appearances. All of these flicks are strong, but Guardians of the Galaxy raked in the bucks, along with positive reviews from critics — this one included. MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING: Tilda Swinton is nearly unrecognizable in The Grand Budapest Hotel , and it was hard not to appreciate the transformative qualities of Steve Carell’s prominent prosthetic in Foxcatcher . Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White blew the competition away, though, with their ability to transform mere earthlings into striking space beings in Guardians of the Galaxy . BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) — Boyhood and Birdman were locks in this category for almost entirely different reasons. The latter won the Golden Globe, but crafting a screenplay by confabbing with your cast once a year for more than a decade? It’s unprecedented, but it’s also compelling, real, and deeply moving. Still, you can’t ignore the quick-wittedness, creativity, and pacing of current Academy fave Wes Anderson (this is his third nomination in this category) in The Grand Budapest Hotel . WILL WIN BY A NOSE: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE — Here again, I’ll admit to some favoritism — in this case, toward two of my all-time favorite players, Edward Norton and Mark Ruffalo. But J.K. Simmons is going to walk away with this one — and he deserves it for his creepily intense and haunting performance as the borderline psychotic instructor in Whiplash . At least, I hope he wins: Otherwise, he might start throwing chairs at people’s heads. SHOULD AND WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE — If Meryl Streep makes even one semiserious film in a given year, she’s probably going to get an Oscar nod — she’s the most nominated actor in the award’s history. Even if musicals aren’t your thing, you still have to admit it was a treat to see her sing in Into the Woods . I don’t think Hollywood takes Emma Stone seriously, but if she keeps delivering performances like the one she gives in Birdman , she’ll get her turn. This year, though, Patricia Arquette is going to ride the wave of goodwill for Boyhood all the way up to the podium. WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE — I can’t figure out why the Academy neglected Life Itself , the much-touted doc about the late, great Roger Ebert. Finding Vivian Maier is a delightful, revelatory film about an until-recently-unknown street photographer. But Citizenfour : Whoa. Rarely do you see a film documenting events that are short on action (most of the scenes consist of an analyst and some journalists hanging out in a hotel room) but will be mentioned in every American history
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) — Selma is the only Best Picture nominee left out of this group, but the oddball Inherent Vice made the cut. I enjoyed the heck out of Graham Moore’s deftly paced work in The Imitation Game — he managed to make a story with a foregone conclusion suspenseful. But American Sniper is taking the box office by storm, and I have a feeling Jason Hall’s adaptation of Chris Kyle’s memoir will emerge victorious here. WILL WIN: Jason Hall, American Sniper
The Academy overlooked Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ ominous, operatic, and suitably haunting work in Gone Girl , though the music is too conspicuous at times. Similarly, Hans Zimmer may have been nominated simply because no one can ignore his score for Interstellar . Everything else being equal, Alexandre Desplat would still have a 40 percent chance of winning this category. Jóhann Jóhannsson took home the Golden Globe for The Theory of Everything , though, so he’s the safer bet. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Everything Is Awesome” ( The Lego Movie ) is one of the most infuriatingly catchy songs of the year. But “Glory,” from Selma , won a Golden Globe, and this is the only other nomination that respectable film earned. It deserves to win this and more.