The shape of billboards Oscars 2018
Were the Oscars ever a simple matter of quality? Probably not. In the first place, artistic quality is a fungible conceit, with one person’s Holy Grail being another’s tin cup. Then, of course, there’s money. Back in 1939, the cost of making Gone With the Wind came in at under $4 million. These days, big-budget epics run to $150 million and more. With inflation comes more intense and expensive lobbying, and artistic quality becomes, if not an afterthought, at least not the main event. Other factors are increasingly agitating for attention from the Academy these days. In an industry long dominated by white males, women and minorities are demanding a fair share of the action, and awards that appear to ignore these interests are increasingly coming under attack. Harvey Weinstein, who spent like a drunken sailor on Oscar campaigns, is in disgrace, and Hollywood fault lines are dramatically shifting.
Is Oscar himself outdated? A tall bald golden man with a big sword? How 20th-century patriarchy is that?
BEST PICTURE
They’re at the gate, and it’s a field of nine again this year. As always, there are favorites and also-rans. The latter category includes some pretty good pictures — the delicate gay coming-of-age romance Call Me by
Your Name, the Churchill bio Darkest Hour, the heroic evacuation of Dunkirk, the Daniel Day-Lewis swan song Phantom Thread, Spielberg’s feminist/free-press anthem The Post, and Greta Gerwig’s much-heralded directorial debut, Lady Bird. That leaves three in serious contention: Get Out, the year’s biggest breakout surprise, made for only slightly more money than Gone With the Wind. The front-runners, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, are both are dominated by women protagonists. Both have their fervent fans and their fierce detractors, with
Water taking on plagiarism claims, and Billboards under fire for moral ambiguity. CHOICE: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri PREDICTION: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST DIRECTOR
Oscar only makes room for five directors on his dance card, so four of those Best Picture helmers are wallflowers this year. Surprisingly, that group includes Martin McDonagh, which might boost his chances for Best Picture. But nobody in this section stands much of a chance against The Shape of Water’s Guillermo del Toro. CHOICE: Guillermo del Toro PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro
BEST ACTRESS
It’s become an axiom of the industry that if Meryl Streep has a picture, she has a nomination. And why not? She’s the gold standard. Her Katharine Graham in The Post was superb, but that’s not the door Oscar will be knocking on this year. Margot Robbie does a great Tonya Harding, but the picture I, Tonya feels a bit tacky and off-pitch. Saoirse Ronan lit up Lady Bird, and it’s hard to imagine how Oscar could bypass the remarkable Sally Hawkins, whose Maudie was one of last year’s finest performances, and who capped it with her nomination as the mute janitor with the fishy boyfriend in The Shape of Water. But Frances McDormand, who won this prize more than 20 years ago for Fargo, is an unstoppable force this year. CHOICE: Sally Hawkins PREDICTION: Frances McDormand
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet doubled up with a part in Lady
Bird and his nominated role in Call Me by Your Name, and he did a politically correct mea culpa by repudiating his paycheck for the latest Woody Allen movie, but Oscar won’t call his name this year. It’s the same fate for Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., and Daniel Kaluuya’s breakout performance in Get
Out, and even the great Daniel Day-Lewis, who bids farewell to the screen in Phantom Thread. This year it’s all about Gary Oldman, and his 200 hours in the makeup chair to put him into the skin of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. CHOICE: Gary Oldman PREDICTION: Gary Oldman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Something gets into the water sometimes, and for no discernible reason, one fine supporting performance breaks away from the pack. Laurie Metcalf seemed a likely winner at one point for Lady Bird, but the punditry is now leaning heavily on Allison Janney for her mother from hell in I, Tonya. CHOICE: Laurie Metcalf PREDICTION: Allison Janney
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is a similar breakaway rout. All the others can leave their speeches in the sock drawer, as it looks like home free for Sam Rockwell’s brilliant and quirky performance as the racist deputy in Three Billboards. CHOICE: Sam Rockwell PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
His old partner Ismail Merchant is gone, but James Ivory, still standing tall at eighty-nine, looks poised to pick up his first individual Oscar for his adaptation of André Aciman’s Call Me by Your Name. CHOICE: James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name PREDICTION: James Ivory
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
OK, here’s a race. They’re all quality contenders, with a couple of performers making a splash with screenplays. Comic Kumail Nanjiani and his wife Emily V. Gordon tell their real life story in The Big Sick, and actress Greta Gerwig conjures up the angst of adolescence in Lady Bird. This seems to be the one place where Del Toro can stay seated. The battle will be between Jordan Peele’s weirdly inventive horror tale
Get Out and Martin McDonagh’s subversive, explosive Three Billboards. CHOICE: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri PREDICTION: Martin McDonagh
BONUS ROUND
Best Foreign Language Film appears to give Chile’s
A Fantastic Woman a slight edge over Sweden’s The Square, with the Lebanese entry The Insult nibbling at the edges. Agnès Varda, the indomitable eightynine-year-old French New Wave survivor, leads the Best Documentary category with Faces, Places. Coco is probably a shoo-in for Animated Feature, though it would be nice to see some love for the extraordinary
Loving Vincent. Look to Darkest Hour for an easy win in Makeup. And let’s hear it for Roger Deakins’ stunning cinematography on Blade Runner 2049.
NO RESPECT
No Best Director nomination for Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards)? What’s that all about? And Wonder Woman deserved a better fate. ◀