Debate showdown looms for candidates
The question, coming into Monday night’s first presidential debate at Hofstra University in New York, is which Trump will show up?
In Mr. Trump’s first 10 debates in the primary, “He was nasty, he called his opponents names, and it worked,” said Mr. Kall. “He got to the last debate and he was a different candidate — substantive, with no nicknames.”
Despite going head-tohead with “Monday Night Football,” the 9 p.m. debate is expected to be one of the most-watched in history. Despite the fireworks and fireballs that marked Mr. Trump’s style in the primaries, many debate predictors are anticipating a toneddown Mr. Trump this time around.
“It’s a gigantic opportunity for Trump, if he can show a calmer, steadier, not-getting-his-feathers-ruffled presidential demeanor,” said Philip Harold, professor of political science at Robert Morris University.
Mr. Trump also may hold back because, experts say, the super-aggressive style he used in the primaries won’t work as well against a woman.
“The gender issue becomes relevant,” said John Rief, an assistant professor at Duquesne University and consultant to its debating society. “There’s a risk of people perceiving his aggression negatively because it would violate their sense of decorum.”
Vice President Joe Biden’s more hands-off style when he debated Sarah Palin in 2008 vs. Paul Ryan in 2012 is attributed to gender concerns, and Rick Lazio’s attempt to get Hillary Clinton to sign a paper pledging against soft money in a 2000 Senate debate was described at the time as “intimidating.”
As for Ms. Clinton, with decades of experience as a policymaker, her best strategy is to “wonk out,” said Mr. Harold. “It confuses someone who is a businessman and really doesn’t know the details. It’s really a great strategy and that’s never been Trump’s strategy. He’s not an in-the-weeds, details guy.”
Mr. Trump was largely able to get away without being challenged on policy in the primary debates due to the number of candidates participating. He never spoke more that 30 minutes in any one primary debate, said Mr. Kall, whereas Monday night’s 90minute debate will be roughly divided so that each candidate gets equal time.
But even though Ms. Clinton is likely to dominate on knowledge of policy, it may not matter.
“Style and presentation are almost more important in many cases than what they’re actually saying,” said. Mr. Rief. “What people are doing when they are watching is they are sizing up the person rather than the arguments: ‘Do I like this person and does this person seem like someone I can deal with on a day-to-day basis?’ ”
If Mr. Trump does go down an aggressive “Lyin’ Hillary” path, most experts suggest that Ms. Clinton not try to fire back with similar barbs, noting that she may not have the personality for it and that it didn’t work well for candidates such as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in the primaries.
Combating him with humor might work if she can pull it off, noted Mr. Harold, while Mr. Kall suggested using a version of the “You can’t insult your way to the presidency” line that Jeb Bush used in a primary debate.
For Ms. Clinton, though her long history in politics brings experience, it also provides a record for Mr. Trump to attack. In her primary debates, Bernie Sanders shied away from confronting her on topics such as the email server scandal, and it’s unlikely that Mr. Trump will make the same decision.
“She’ll really be on uncharted territory -— a lot of her main vulnerabilities she has not had to defend on a debate stage,” said Mr. Kall, using examples such as the emails, her health, the Clinton Foundation and her recent description of some Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables.”
Given the recent bombings in New York and New Jersey, Mr. Kall also noted the importance of terrorism and national security — issues where both candidates have seen campaign success — estimating that it may take up as much as a third of a discussion. “It will be a real battle royale to see who emerges on top,” he said.