Europe in knots
Migration, Brexit and U.S. vote stymie stability
September has revealed in Europe at least three phenomena that are evidence of serious, if not tectonic, tremors in its general overall stability.
The first and most important of these is that efforts to deal with the ongoing crisis created by migration have worked only middling well. Wars to the east of Europe, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, continue to produce a flood of migrants westward into Europe that an agreement with Turkey has been only partly effective in containing. The United States as well as the United Kingdom and France continue to contribute to the continuation of the wars that put migrants on the run.
In addition, the impact of efforts to stem migration from the east into Europe has been undercut significantly by an increased flow of migrants across the Mediterranean from the south, including from Libya and Somalia, where war also continues to stimulate flight.
Another impact of the continuing migration problem, reinforced by the British position on leaving the European Union voted for June 23, is that the EU has divided on the migration issue, summed up in a “Bratislava vs. Brussels” lineup, with the richer countries led by Germany accepting responsibility for dealing with migration, while the smaller Eastern European countries want simply to lock the door against migrants, from the east and the south.
This political position is gauged to have lain behind the poor performance of the Christian Democratic Party of Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel in recent state elections. Germany took in 1.1 million migrants last year and the generally popular Ms. Merkel appears to be paying a price.
The current ambivalent position of the United Kingdom, having voted to leave the EU but now, under new Prime Minister Theresa May showing no signs of urgency in acting to actually walk out the door, is also leaving Europe in a stew. The British appear to want to preserve access to the single EU market, while avoiding the bonds of a common immigration policy.
The final stimulant of considerable confusion on that side of the Atlantic is the American election situation. The outcome, they imagine, will make a difference to them in terms of U.S. relations with Europe in the fields of defense, trade, climate change and future coordination in many fields. They — as many Americans — remain mystified and to a degree stoic in the face of what is going on here in that area.