Pennsylvania is Clinton’s firewall
For Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania is a fail-safe state. If she wins it, Donald Trump’s path to electoral victory becomes much harder. Her debate performance Monday night brightened her already good odds.
That was evident Tuesday when Vice President Joe Biden headlined a getout-the-vote rally at Drexel University in Philadelphia. He brought up the debate often, praising Ms. Clinton and flaying Mr. Trump to an enthusiastic crowd.
Democrats have worried about how to motivate young voters, so they were relieved that some Drexel students said the debate made them more likely to vote for Ms. Clinton. More black voters also came on board, according to Dwight Evans, a veteran Democratic state legislator favored to win a congressional seat in November in a mostly black Philadelphia district.
“When Trump demeans Barack Obama with the crazy birther issues and others, it makes people mad,” Mr. Evans said. The Republican nominee repeatedly criticized Mr. Obama’s presidency at the debate and refused to take responsibility for spreading the lie that Mr. Obama wasn’t really born in the United States.
Still, Democrats aren’t taking Pennsylvania for granted. Michelle Obama visited Philadelphia Wednesday. Mr. Biden’s visit was his third in the last two months, and more are planned. Mr. Obama campaigned for Ms. Clinton in Philadelphia Sept. 13.
Ms. Clinton has been to the Keystone State four times since the Democratic convention in July (also in Philadelphia), and has toured the state by bus. Her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, has hit four medium-sized Pennsylvania cities. His wife, Ann Holton, has visited once. Bill and Chelsea Clinton have shown up multiple times.
In contrast to tight contests in Florida and Ohio, Democrats are confident that Ms. Clinton will win Pennsylvania despite a few polls showing the race narrowing. A recent private Democratic poll showed her still with an eight-point lead.
Republicans think Mr. Trump can win Pennsylvania, although the party has lost the last six presidential elections in the state. They are calculating that a heavily negative campaign will discourage voters from turning out in Philadelphia and its heavily populated suburbs, where Democrats do well, and will alienate Democratic-leaning younger voters.
Turnout is central to whether Pennsylvania will be close. In 2012, the nonwhite vote, which went overwhelmingly for Mr. Obama over Mitt Romney, was 21 percent of the electorate. In 2014, when there was no presidential contest, it fell to 18 percent. That’s why low turnout favors Republicans.
College-educated whites, who are trending toward Ms. Clinton, were almost half of the Pennsylvania electorate in 2012 but less than 40 percent two years ago. The percentage of young voters also declined.
Democrats hope rallies like Mr. Biden’s and the Obamas’ will help them achieve a turnout close to 2012 levels.
At Drexel Tuesday, several students who said they were considering staying home in November or voting for the Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, said the debate pushed them into the Clinton camp. “I’ve never seen someone as bad as Trump,” declared Will Ashman, a 19-year-old sophomore. Nick Daroshekski of New Jersey and Natalie Blair of California said they were persuaded to vote in Pennsylvania instead of in their home states, where Ms. Clinton is a shooin.
Mr. Biden hammered away at Mr. Trump’s debate performance, noting that the New York billionaire seemed proud that he hadn’t paid taxes and had profited from the mortgage crisis. That showed, Mr. Biden told the Drexel audience, that Mr. Trump lacked a conservative “moral center” like President Ronald Reagan’s.
If this message helps capture the state’s 20 electoral votes, it is, in Mr. Biden’s phrase, a big deal. Then, even if the Republican wins Florida and Ohio, it will be difficult for him to get the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory. That’s a firewall.
Albert R. Hunt is a columnist for Bloomberg View.