China gears up
As plenary session opens, internal issues rule
As the U.S. political campaign encourages simplistic views of foreign affairs, with candidates assuming falsely that voters can’t handle complexities, the view of China making the rounds tends to leave out a lot.
In fact, that nation of 1.3 billion, with an enormous, growing economy, governed through an archaic, at least in principle highly ideological structure, tends to be so preoccupied with its own internal problems as to be virtually incapable of presenting any real threat to the United States, or to American interests.
The drama there, which will begin today and last through Thursday, is the sixth plenary session of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, leading up to the 19th party congress next year. Democracy it will not be, but the plenary will nonetheless comprise a cockpit of political competition, with the future of President Xi Jinping one of the pieces at stake.
He will remain as president and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party until the 20th party congress in 2022, but the idea of his seeking an unusual third term is already in the air. He could seek that rather than designate a preferred successor, based on what could be considered either an economic or a national security crisis.
It doesn’t really matter to the United States, within limits, who is on top in Beijing, the smooth Mr. Xi or someone else. But if he were to provoke a crisis to serve as a justification for another term in office, it would matter a great deal, whether the crisis was based on economic or security factors. To make an intelligent guess as to who might succeed Mr. Xi would require more extensive knowledge of factions in Chinese politics than Americans probably have the raw material to carry out.
China’s economic issues include excess manufacturing capacity, a bloated real estate market and surging debt. They will have to be addressed at the plenary. It should also be borne in mind that the legitimacy of Communist rule in China remains based on a rising standard of living for the population.
Foreign affairs issues, including relations with the United States, will likely remain secondary at the plenary, although Mr. Xi has helped his prestige and influence through courting successfully the Philippines’ new president, Rodrigo Duterte, and thawing China’s sometimes chilly relations with Russia.
America’s new president will have to bear all of this in mind as he or she dives into the complicated relationship with what has become the world’s second power.