China watch
All eyes on the People’s Congress, starting today
The annual session of China’s National People’s Congress, in effect its legislature, will begin today with 3,000 delegates, all Chinese Communist Party members, in attendance.
Basically, the NPC is a shell institution, with key governing decisions taking place in advance of or outside the Congress’ deliberations. At the same time, its speeches, and the personnel decisions that take place there, are important indicators not only to China-watchers, but also to the Chinese population as to what is going on in the nation of 1.3 billion. America therefore needs to watch it closely.
China’s economy has been slowing, and its level of debt rising, the background to whatever comes out at the Congress. Military spending is projected to rise, in part due to the expansionist role China is playing in the region including the South China Sea, although its expenditure for defense will still lag far behind America’s, even without President Donald Trump’s intended increases.
Consistent with the communist government’s continuing effort to maintain its legitimacy with its people by improvement of the standard of living, Prime Minister Li Keqiang will defend his government’s performance by citing increases in social security benefits, new construction of affordable housing and restructuring — albeit slow — of inefficient state-owned enterprises.
President Xi Jinping’s signature achievement has been the successful achievement, led by anti-graft czar Wang Qishan, of the president’s campaign against corruption. It still has a very long way to go, but is nonetheless considered to be visible and showing progress.
The other two subject areas worth watching include a possible foreign affairs subject and predictable personnel maneuvering.
Five of seven members of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, including Mr. Wang, are up for retirement. If one or more of them remain, the way might be paved for Mr. Xi to pursue a third term as party general secretary in 2023. It might also be that Mr. Li will be pushed out as prime minister, possibly to be replaced by Mr. Wang, an old, close friend of the president.
The other, slightly messy subject is China’s relationships with North and South Korea, bearing on its policy toward the United States. It appears to be annoyed at North Korea’s aggressive nuclear weapons policy and its apparent assassination of Kim Jong Nam, leader Kim Jong Un’s half-brother, who was under Beijing’s protection, and has put at least nominal limits on its coal imports from North Korea.
It is cross with South Korea over Seoul’s agreement last July to accept installation of an American-supplied missile defense system, the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense System. South Korea and the United States maintain that it is directed against North Korea. China sees it as aimed at it as well and has instituted a partial boycott against South Korea as discouragement.
To whatever degree the events surrounding the NPC constitute real policy-making, it will nonetheless be interesting to watch, even with the curtain only halfway up.