Holding pattern

Job figures are blah, but it’s too soon to judge Trump

America’s weak job creation figures for March should not be overinterpreted in terms of estimating the impact of the Trump presidency on the economic prospects of the country under his leadership.

There are at least three reasons for optimism. Each is, as usual in political matters, ambiguous. The first is the promises Donald Trump made during his candidacy. He promised jobs, both in American companies returning their productive facilities to America and in creating new ones here at home. He promised the removal of what he considers to be economy-stifling regulations, in environmental and other areas. He put forward the idea that an experienced, successful businessman as president could make the American economy hum again.

There is no getting around the fact that Americans have seen some positive results so far, but it is also important to remember that it is still early days for the Trump presidency. The creation of only 98,000 new jobs in March, in comparison with figures in the 200,000 range in January and February, recalling that the economy has to create 150,000 jobs per month just to provide employment for new entries into the job market, was definitely not inspiring.

The fact that March’s flaccid performance was attributed by some to the good weather that part of the country experienced in January and February makes it even worse. On the other hand, the continuing rise in stock market levels should be seen as a positive sign. The flip side of that measure is that it largely benefits rich stock- and bondholders — not the forgotten people who voted for Mr. Trump — and the Wall Street bankers and stockbrokers get their fat commissions from sales and purchases of stocks and bonds no matter which direction the market goes.

Another important element to bear in mind is that Mr. Trump has yet to fill some of the key posts in his administration, at the Treasury and other economy-related arms of the federal government, so that whatever positive effect his advent to Washington government might be expected to have has not yet arrived at the operating level, whether it be deregulation, incentive provision, or just plain atmosphere or attitude.

In other words, it hasn’t yet been a chicken in every pot, nor economic Armageddon with Mr. Trump. But there is plenty for those contemplating economic decisions to watch. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is planning to unload from its $4 trillion stash some of the $875 billion in bad paper it took off the hands of American banks as quantitative easing in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. Congress, currently on a two-week vacation, is going to have to raise the national debt limit above $20 trillion, pass a budget and, in principle, undertake tax reform, having failed to repeal Obamacare or to pass Trumpcare.

The challenges remain to be met, and the results so far are not conclusive, but the train is moving in terms of gauging the economic and eventually political impact on Americans of Mr. Trump’s rule.