Two horses fit a pattern for Derby

Favorite has won each year since 2012

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Over the past four years, the Kentucky Derby has settled into a comfortable — and predictable — pattern.

A favorite emerges, a consensus status is solidified by Derby Day, and it wins the race. Orb ($5.40-1), California Chrome ($2.50-1), American Pharoah ($ 2.90- 1) and Nyquist ($2.30-1) have given Derby favorites their longest winning streak since 1972-75.

But as the contenders converge on Churchill Downs Saturday for the 143rd running of the race, there are two top choices, and a more wide-open view of the race than in the past several editions.

Todd Pletcher’s Always Dreaming has been the most consistently impressive of this year’s contenders, including in his final work last week , a 5-furlong drill in 59.60 seconds that left the backside buzzing.

“I thought it was a powerful work, exceptional,” said Pletcher, who has saddled 45 Derby starters with one winner, and expects to send five, a quarter of the field, into this year’s race. “He’s full of himself. It was a good work with a great gallop out.”

A son of Bodemeister — himself a beaten favorite in the 2012 Derby, the most recent year in which a favorite didn’t win — Always Dreaming has won three times in five starts and never been out of the money. He’s coming off a five-length victory in the Florida Derby, but has never run a race at Churchill Downs and, in the end, might not be the favorite.

That’s because 2-year-old champion Classic Empire might be returning to form. After winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to finish 4 for 4 and being voted the unanimous Eclipse Award winner for 2-year-old Horse of the Year, he figured to be the big favorite for the Derby and perhaps a Triple Crown threat.

But the half-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah never threatened in finishing a wellbeaten third in his first race of 2017, the Grade II Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

He was diagnosed with an abscess in his right foot after that race and went to the sideline. Scheduled to return to training a month later, he refused to break off from a gallop in what was to have been his first workout back. Trainer Mark Casse said he was showing some discomfort in his back.

It was another 11 days before he actually managed a workout at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida. Classic Empire eventually returned at the Arkansas Derby April 17, and it was an impressive return, a half-length victory that vaulted him back into the Kentucky Derby favorite’s discussion.

Classic Empire took to the track at Churchill Downs Friday morning and breezed a half-mile in 49.20 seconds. He has won five of his seven career starts (one he did not finish, after losing his rider), with wins in both of his starts at Churchill Downs.

“His work gave me chills,” Casse said. “Now it’s a waiting game. It’s all about timing.”

Six of the past seven Derby winners have won their final prep before the Run for the Roses, which means that Girvin (Louisiana Derby), Gormley (Santa Anita Derby), Irap (Blue Grass Stakes), Hence (Sunland Derby) and Fast and Accurate (Spiral Stakes) might also garner decent public support.

Twenty horses are expected in the field.