Title bout: Barletta vs. Casey
The nation will be watching if they face off for the Senate
If U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta ends up as the Republican nominee running against Sen. Bob Casey next year, it might well make Pennsylvania ground zero in a national referendum on President Donald Trump.
Messrs. Barletta and Trump are that closely aligned. Mr. Barletta was among the earliest members of Congress to endorse Mr. Trump, was a top Pennsylvania campaign surrogate, served on Trump’s transition team and nearly nabbed a Cabinet post. (He wanted transportation, was asked about labor, but withdrew from consideration.)
Mother Jones magazine has labeled Mr. Barletta “Trump’s political godfather.” That’s because when Mr. Barletta was mayor of Hazleton (Luzerne County) in 2006, he pushed tough anti-immigration ordinances (later struck down by federal courts) seen by some as the first bricks of Mr. Trump’s “great wall.” Every movement has to start somewhere.
Also, according to a source close to Mr. Barletta, Mr. Trump recently met with Mr. Barletta in the White House to encourage him to run for the Senate, where, adding another pro-Trump Republican obviously would help move along the president’s agenda. Note: The GOP health care plan failed by one vote in the Senate, and Mr. Casey, of course, voted against it.
So, a 2018 race featuring a conservative Republican who is “Trump’s political godfather” vs. the state’s legacy Democrat — son of a two-term governor, slayer of Rick Santorum, twice elected U.S. senator — is pretty likely to draw national attention.
The Associated Press on Monday reported that Mr. Barletta told GOP officials and others that he’s in the race. Mr. Barletta hasn’t confirmed that.
But let’s say it’s on. If so, what will be the effect of Mr. Barletta’s alignment with Mr. Trump?
Mr. Trump is self-immolating. By next year, Senate candidates won’t want him stumping for them. He may be suffering the fires of impeachment proceedings.
Even if Mr. Trump is in better shape than that next year, remember, the party in the White House tends to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections? Plus, Mr. Casey is much livelier now than when he entered politics and is highly re-electable. He’s a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-labor Democrat in a state where that’s a pretty good mix.
Then again, what if newly arrived White House chief of staff John Kelly gets Mr. Trump off Twitter and on track and the umpteen probes into Russia, Trump finances and whatnot never pan out? What if by next year the mood of the country has, for the most part, settled down?
Mr. Barletta has been lucky once. After being elected to the House in 2010, his congressional district was gerrymandered into what, for almost any Republican, could be a lifelong seat.
The 11th District runs diagonally from northeast Pennsylvania (one county from the New York border) to south-central Pennsylvania (one county from the Maryland border), conveniently skirting the Democratic cities of Harrisburg and Wilkes-Barre.
Mr. Barletta won in 2010 with 54 percent of the vote. He won his two re-elections with 64 percent and 66 percent.
In that case, one might wonder, why give up a sure thing for an uphill slog against Bob Casey?
The argument is that Mr. Trump still has substantial support among Pennsylvania Republicans and others who voted for him in 2016, at least according to insider polls. “There’s no buyer remorse yet,” one GOP consultant says.
Mr. Barletta can cut into Mr. Casey’s northeastern home base. And Mr. Casey is more left-of-center than when he was first elected in 2006.
Others looking to take on Mr. Casey include a couple of Western Pennsylvania state House members and a few business types. But Mr. Barletta is the biggest name so far mentioned.
Mr. Barletta has taken a swing at the big leagues before. He tried out with the Cincinnati Reds as an outfielder, but didn’t make it. By his own admission, he couldn’t hit the curve.
Big League politics throws a lot of curveballs.