Trump vs. the GOP
The president grows distant from his party
President Donald Trump’s relationship with the GOP has grown noticeably strained over the last several months. Perhaps this should not come as a surprise. Mr. Trump — who had considered running for president as the Reform party candidate in 2000 — is a recent convert to Republicanism and has often rejected ideas central to the party’s platform. Even so, presidents at such an early stage of their administration should still be maintaining good relations with their party. Mr. Trump is not.
Mr. Trump has never been one to shy away from a fight, and lately he has been attacking his own side. Most noticeably, he publicly called out Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski for her opposition to the GOP’s Obamacare repeal efforts. Ms. Murkowski should be criticized, as she has previously supported repeal, but presidents almost never rebuke their allies in such a fashion.
Republicans in Congress have long grumbled about Mr. Trump, usually anonymously to Capitol Hill reporters. But the complaints have become more public recently.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell griped last week that Mr. Trump had created “excessive expectations” regarding the speed at which Congress is able to work. (Mr. Trump quickly fired back by tweet, pointing out that, in failing to pass Obamacare repeal in the Senate, Mr. McConnell “couldn’t get it done.”)
Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake recently wrote an article for Politico headlined “My Party Is In Denial about Donald Trump.” Mr. Flake was critical of Mr. Trump during last year’s presidential campaign and pointedly refused to endorse him. What makes this noteworthy is that Mr. Flake is up for reelection next year, and seems intent onrunning against Mr. Trump.
It’s not just Beltway politicians, either. Republican voters seem to be souring on Mr. Trump, at least a bit.
Generally speaking, each party can count on a floor of about 45 percent support in every national election. So, when a president’s job approval rating drops below that number, it means he is shedding his own partisans. During his eight years in office, Barack Obama rarely fell below that figure, as Democratic voters continued to back him.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been below 45 percent since almost day one. Right now, his job approval is under 40 percent. Polls find that enthusiasm for Mr. Trump even among his base voters has waned noticeably.
Another warning sign for Mr. Trump comes out of New Hampshire. A poll last week found Ohio Gov. John Kasich outpolling him among likely Republican primary voters, 52-40. Granted, the pollster who conducted the survey does not have the best reputation, but Mr. Kasich’s lead is so large that, even if it is massively overestimated, it still means Mr. Trump is struggling more than he should as a first-term incumbent.
Little wonder that rumors abound of Republican politicians angling for 2020. Hardly a week goes by that The New York Times or The Washington Post does not talk about Vice President Mike Pence taking a meeting with some important constituency as part of an effort to build a robust political network. This kind of gladhanding is typical when a president is near the end of his second term and the vice president wants to succeed him. But Mr. Trump is at the start of his first term, so Mr. Pence’s activity is extremely unusual.
Moreover, Republicans have found excuses to make trips to the early primary states. Sens. Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse have both gone to Iowa, while Mr. Kasich has gone to New Hampshire.
The Trump administration does not seem altogether concerned about this, although it should be. CNBC’s John Harwood recently tweeted that an ally of House Speaker Paul Ryan “tells me Trump is moving toward ‘an independent [White House]’ untethered from the Republican Party.” But American politics has almost always been partisan. A handful of presidents have tried to forge an independent route, but have never been successful.
It is still early, of course, but if Mr. Trump does not maintain good relations with Republican voters and leaders, he will struggle to be renominated in 2020, let alone re-elected.