Vote could destabilize the region
For Iraq’s displaced, long-suffering Kurds, independence beckons
BARZAN, Iraq — A pair of rusted eyeglasses, a grimy antique watch, torn bank notes and old identification cards.
These simple items on display at a museum here in northern Iraq, dug from a mass grave of Kurdish tribesmen massacred by Saddam Hussein’s henchmen, help explain why there is little doubt about how Kurds will vote in a referendum this month on independence from Iraq.
“How could the international community expect us to be part of Iraq after these crimes?” said Khalat Barzani, who is in charge of the museum that memorializes the deportation and killings ofthousands of Kurds in 1983.
Even if the outcome is a foregone conclusion — nearly every Kurd holds dear the dream of statehood — the vote in Iraqi Kurdistan represents a historic moment in the Kurds’ generations-long struggle for political independence.
Numbering about 30 million people spread across four countries — Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran — the Kurds are often described as the world’s largest ethnic group without their own homeland. Iraqi Kurdistan, an oil-rich enclave in northern Iraq, may be their best hope yet.
The referendum’s approval would start the process of turning the autonomous region into an independent state.
But outside of Kurdistan, every major player in the neighborhood opposes the vote, which could break up Iraq and further destabilize a volatile, war-torn region.
Baghdad has indicated that it would not recognize the results.
Across the border in Turkey, officials worry that Kurds declaring independence in Iraq would inflame the separatist sentiments of Kurdsin Turkey. Turkey has opposed the referendum and warned that it could lead to a new civil war in Iraq.
U.S. officials, concerned that it would hobble the fight against the Islamic State, have urged the Kurds to delay the vote. An open rift between Baghdad and Kurdistan could end the cooperation between Iraqi and Kurdish forces, which is seen as critical in the campaign to defeat the Islamic State. Kurdish secession would also deprive the United States of one of its primary goals since it invaded this country: keeping Iraq intact.
Iran, the pre-eminent foreign power in Iraq, with its close ties to the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and Iraqi Shiite militias under its control, has emphasized that its priority is maintaining the unity of Iraq.
Without the support of neighboring countries, the vote could backfire, failing to achieve independence and becoming another in a long history of lost opportunities fora long-suffering people.
It also could set off violence in disputed areas like Kirkuk, a multiethnic city under Kurdish control that has long been contested between the central government and Kurdish authorities.
“Having a referendum on such a fast timeline, particularly in disputed areas, would be, we think, significantly destabilizing,” Brett H. McGurk, President Donald Trump’s envoy to the international coalition battling the Islamic State, said last month.
But the Kurdistan Regional Government says the vote will go forward as scheduled on Sept. 25, and will be binding. Assuming it passes, Kurdish officials say, it will set in motion a formal breakaway process, including negotiations with the Iraqi government and a diplomatic push to win the support of regional powers.
“If you look at our history we have been mistreated throughout history,” said Masrour Barzani, the chancellor of the Kurdistan Region Security Council and the son of the region’s president, Massoud Barzani, who is leading the drive for sovereignty. “We as a nation have every right to self-determination.”
He added, “We believe it is the right time” to seek independence.
Many believe it is only a matter of time before the Kurds have their own state.