Lebanon in limbo
High stakes in the prime minister’s resignation
The announcement Saturday by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri that he was resigning from the Beirut government was an unhelpful shock — both for the well-being of Lebanon, a precariously balanced country at best, and overall equilibrium in the Middle East. He made the announcement while in Saudi Arabia, which indicates the forces at play.
Lebanese political balance is almost a contradiction in terms at best. Its president must be a male Maronite Catholic. Its prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim. The speaker of its parliament must be a Shiite Muslim. This distribution of senior political posts reflects, to some extent, the alignment of religious sects in the country, as well as some history. Lebanese politics are a continuing dance to keep these posts filled with credible figures.
The current Lebanese government is led by a former Christian general, Michel Aoun, who formed an alliance with a Shiite Muslim extremist organization, Hezbollah, which used to do kidnappings but has become more respectable over the years, to become president. Mr. Aoun is despised by many of his Maronite brethren for the deal he made, but it is likely that the only way to get rid of him as president is by the time-honored Lebanese custom of assassination. The Syrians may eventually get around to carrying one out, based on Mr. Aoun’s and Hezbollah’s role in the Syrian civil war and their general propensity to meddle in Lebanese politics.
Mr. Hariri is the son of a Lebanese businessman, Rafiq Hariri, made very rich and protected by the Saudis, who was assassinated as prime minister in 2005. He is considered to be competent, even charismatic, and leaves a vacancy that will be hard to fill credibly by another Sunni politician. Mr. Aoun has not yet accepted his resignation.
Shiite Hezbollah, the best armed and the best fighters of the various Lebanese militias, particularly based on their recent experience in Syria as well as having cut their teeth in wars with Israel, are the Saudis’ real target in bringing about Mr. Hariri’s resignation. What is going on at the regional level is that the Saudis want to trim Hezbollah, backed by Iran, to get even with them for having played an effective fighting role in the Syria conflict. The Saudis undercut the Hezbollah-backed Lebanese government by popping Mr. Hariri out of it.
Whether they have done this just to show they can, and will let him resume office, remains to be seen. In any case, Lebanon, laden down with Syrian refugees, in the middle of a very dangerous region, and now with a hobbled government, may have moved into the danger zone of Middle Eastern countries.
More instability — even if it benefits the Saudis against the Iranians — is to no one’s advantage, including America’s. The United States should tell the Saudis that, and suggest that they let Mr. Hariri return to his chores in Lebanon promptly and safely. Lebanon, notably explosive, is not a stage upon which to play political games.