Trump, Pence visits to support Saccone reflect GOP value of 18th District

Ordinarily, you’d expect pundits to be impressed by news that President Donald Trump plans to visit Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District next week.

The visit, first reported by the online political magazine Politico Thursday evening, would bring serious starpower to help state Rep. Rick Saccone, the Elizabeth Republican competing to replace

Tim Murphy in a March 13 special election. Mr. Trump, after all, won the district by roughly 20 points in 2016, and Vice President Mike Pence also is expected to visit at least once.

Mr. Trump’s appearance would have “huge” benefits for Mr. Saccone, Erie Congressman Mike Kelly told the political journal.

Yet the day after the report, political prognosticators at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted the district from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” suggesting a Democratic upset could be more likely.

Kyle Kondik, who handicaps congressional races for the center, said he changed the rating because the moves suggested Republican anxiety — though he noted the new rating still gave the edge to Mr. Saccone.

Republicans “see real trouble,” said Tim Waters, the national political director for the United Steelworkers. The union is backing Mr. Saccone’s rival, Democrat Conor Lamb. And Mr. Waters said, “I’ve never seen the president and the vice president be in a district that should be so safe. … If they didn’t need to do that, they wouldn’t be doing it.”

Officially, Mr. Trump will be speaking about a Republican tax-cut plan, and its benefits for business owners. But Politico reported that Mr. Trump’s political advisers had expressed “displeasure with the progress [Saccone] was making on fundraising,” among other concerns about the race.

With the exception of a recent Senate race in Alabama, where GOP candidate Roy Moore was accused of accosting teenage girls when he was in his 30s, Republicans have beaten back Democratic challenges in special elections. Republican insiders maintain the focus on the 18th District — which includes outside funding and on-the-ground support for Mr. Saccone — simply reflects the fact that the party is taking nothing for granted.

Mr. Saccone’s campaign brushed off the notion that the campaign is lagging.

“Fundraising is always an ongoing process, and we’re pleased with how it’s going,” said campaign manager Patrick Geho. “We’re comfortable we’ll have what we need to run a successful campaign.”

News of Mr. Trump’s likely visit arguably was overshadowed by simultaneous reports that he had decried immigration from poor “shithole countries” in a meeting on immigration with senators. But Western Pennsylvania Republicans were standing by him.

Mr. Kelly’s office called the controversy “a distraction from the important overall goal of crafting sensible immigration and border security policy,” and directed a reporter’s attention to an announcement that Kittanning-based NexTier Bank would give $1,000 bonuses to employees. The bank credited a Republican tax-cut bill signed by Mr. Trump last month for the move.

Similarly, the Saccone campaign said “Rick is not focused on the beltway gossip of the week. From passing historic middle-class tax cuts to fixing our broken immigration system, President Trump’s bold agenda continues to deliver results for hardworking Pennsylvania families.”