Officials say local task force set to deal with ‘doomsday’ event

ready website. “A nuclear device can range from a weapon carried by an intercontinental missile, to a small portable nuclear device transported by an individual. All nuclear devices cause deadly effects when exploded.”

Those surviving the initial blast have just minutes to react, according to a 2007 report in Health Physics written by H. Keith Florig and Baruck Fischhoff, both of Carnegie MellonUniversity.

“It’s a good time to revisit these issues,” said Mr. Florig, who holds a doctorate and is a professor at the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business Administration, with an adjunct position at CMU. That 2007 study focused on a “small” nuclear explosion of 10,000 tons of TNT, the size of the Hiroshima blast in 1945.

“The scenario of North Korea missile-delivered nukes is different in that the yield would presumably be 10 times larger, likely comparable to 100,000 tons of TNT,” Mr. Florig said. “But there would be a warning (at least 30 minutes) but the location would be highly uncertain, in part due to limited accuracy of their guidance system. Of course, North Korea will continue to improve their arsenal.”

He estimated Pittsburgh’s chance of being targeted at half of a percentage point. The city was a more important target during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis as the nation’s top steel producer.

As an elementary student in Mt. Lebanon in the 1960s, he said, students were told to run home from school as fast as possible and time themselves. “If we couldn’t make it home in 15 minutes or less, we were assigned to a shelter family close to school. If a Soviet attack warning came in school hours, I was supposed to run to my shelter family’s house and hope that they would let me in.”

The smaller 10,000 TNT explosion, the study said, would erase 1 square mile with fallout causing additional deaths and cancer risk 20 miles downwind and beyond. A larger blast would greatly expand the devastation area and casualties.

As for post-blast fallout, he said, the 2007 report’s recommendations still apply. Shut down ventilation and quickly use sandbags or other shielding atop a strong table inside, preferably in the basement, and remain underneath during initial hours to allow fallout to settle. Each person must decide whether to remain in a lessthan-ideal shelter or evacuate, based on risks of radiation exposure.

So here’s the general strategy: Those close to the blast should secure shelter as soon as possible. Those 2.5 miles from ground zero can expect fatal levels of fallout in less than 15 minutes. So find the deepest underground shelter available within minutes, especially if wind is blowing radiation in your direction.

Those in an area 12 to 30 miles from the blast would face an additional 20 percent cancer risk, making it wise to seek better shelter if time permits. Failure to reach a shelter at that distance from ground zero would increase the cancer risk but not be immediately fatal, he said.

Thirty to 60 miles from the blast provides time to collect the family and flee to safety, by traveling at a 90-degree angle from the direction of prevailing winds to avoid the long, narrow “fallout footprint.” But roads might be congested, raising the risk of being caught above ground whenradiation arrives.

“If you are close to the blast, find shelter immediately. If you are an intermediate distance, do preparations but don’t evacuate. If you are farther out, you probably can outrun the problem, if you have transportation,” the study says.

And if you spot an old fallout shelter sign and the building is intact and open, head to the basement. Get under a desk.