Dirty old men in charge
Trump is gladly wrecking the renewable-energy industry
As a candidate, Donald Trump talked incessantly about trade and how he was going to make America great again by renegotiating trade agreements, forcing foreigners to stop taking our jobs. But during his first year in office, he did little on that front — possibly because corporate America managed to inform him that it has invested a lot of money based on the assumption that we would honor NAFTA and other trade agreements and would lose bigly if he broke them.
This week, however, Mr. Trump finally did impose tariffs on washing machines and solar panels. The former tariff was, I think, more about looking tough than about any kind of strategic objective. The latter, however, fits with an important part of this administration’s general vision. For this is very much an administration of dirty old men.
About washing machines: The legal basis of the new tariff is a finding by the United States International Trade Commission that the industry has been injured by rising imports. The definition of “injury” is peculiar: The commission said the domestic industry “did not suffer a significant idling of productive facilities” and “no significant unemployment.” Still, it argued that production and employment should have expanded more given the economy’s growth between 2012 and 2016 (that’s right, the Obama-era boom).
If this seems like flimsy justification for an action that will significantly raise consumer prices, that’s because it is. But Mr. Trump decided to do it anyway.
The solar panel tariff is more disturbing because it will destroy many more jobs than it will create.
The U.S. is largely out of the solar panel-producing business, and this policy won’t change that. The solarpanel tariff was imposed using an “escape clause” that allows temporary protection of industries suffering sudden disruption. The operative word is “temporary,” which means this tariff won’t induce any long-term investments and therefore won’t bring back the U.S. solarpanel industry.
What it will do is put a crimp in one of the economy’s big success stories, the rapid growth of renewable energy. Of course. The Trump administration thinks hurting renewables is actually a good thing. As I said, this is an administration of dirty old men.
There has been a remarkable technological revolution in energy production. Part of it has involved the rise of fracking, which has made natural gas cheap and abundant. But there have also been stunning reductions in the cost of solar and windpower.
Some people still think of these alternative energy sources as hippy-dippy stuff that can’t survive without big government subsidies, but they’ve now become costcompetitive with conventional energy and their cost is still falling fast. They also employ a lot of people: about five times as many just in solaras in coal mining.
But solar gets no love from Trump officials, who desperately want the country to stay with dirty old power sources, especially coal. (Wait — when I called them dirty old men, did you think I was talking about payoffs to porn stars? Shame on you.) They’ve even rewritten Energy Department reports in an attempt to make renewableenergy look bad.
They’ve tried to turn their preference for dirty energy into concrete policy, too. Last fall, Rick Perry, the energy secretary, tried to impose a rule that would in effect have forced electricity grids to subsidize coal and nuclear plants. The rule was shot down, but it showed what these guys want. From their point of view, destroying solar jobs is probably a goodthing.
Why do Trump and company love dirty energy? Partly it’s about the money: what’s good for the Koch brothers may not be good for America (or the world), but it’s good for GOP campaign finance. Partly it’s about blue-collar voters, who still imagine that Mr. Trump can bring back coal jobs. (In 2017 the coal industry added 500, that’s right, 500 jobs. That’s 0.0003 percent of total U.S. employment.)
It’s also partly about cultural nostalgia: Mr. Trump and others recall the heyday of fossil fuels as a golden age, forgetting how ghastly air and water pollution used to be. But I suspect that it’s also about a kind of machismo, a sense that real men don’t soak up solar energy; they burn stuff instead.
Whatever the specific motivations, the administration’s first significant trade policy move is stunningly boneheaded. You shouldn’t even call it protectionism, since its direct effect will be to destroy far more jobs than it creates. Plus it’s bad for the environment. So much winning!