Where are auto sales going in ‘18?
As the auto industry rolls into 2018, it’s exiting one of the best years of sales ever.
Yet 2017’s sales dropped from 2016’s record year, from 17.5 million units to about 17.2 million.
So as the 2018 Pittsburgh International Auto Show comes to the David L. Lawrence Convention Center — Friday, Feb. 16, through Monday, Feb. 19 — are we facing an inevitable downturn in sales, propped up by a cut in prices?
Not hardly. Technological advances — in safety features, infotainment devices and autonomous vehicle technology — keep the auto industry looking to a bright future. And that future promises a new generation of automobile buyers, according to John Putzier, CEO of Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association.
“Four years ago, only 10 percent of attendees were millennials, and now it’s up to 30 percent,” Mr. Putzier said.
Here’s a look at where the industry stands and what the future may hold. (For a complete look at must-see cars, trucks
and activities at the show, check back for next week’s column.) Sales remain strong: Sales of any item can’t keep growing and growing, and vehicle sales are no different.
After bottoming out in 2009, vehicle sales have climbed every year since, to 17.5 million for the 2016 calendar year, according to Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst for Edmunds.com, the allthings-cars site based in Santa Monica, Calif.
For 2017, sales totaled 17.2 million, still a respectable number.
“You can’t have record sales year after year,” Mr. Putzier said. “But we’re back to selling as many as we did pre-recession.”
While worry about excessive inventory and liquidation sales were the talk of last year’s auto show — and a reasonable prospect as automakers might try propping up sales — that doesn’t seem to have played out, yet. SUVs and trucks remain king: Back in the olden days — 2012 — passenger cars and light trucks split sales 50-50.
Now, in 2017, two trucks are sold for every car.
“The hot ticket in the market right now is SUVs and pickups,” Mr. Putzier said. “People are really migrating away from the traditional passenger car because gas prices are relatively low.”
Of course, “crossover” and “SUV” have expanded their definitions. For example, Hyundai will unveil the Kona for 2018, a competitor for the Honda HRV and Mazda CX-3. But all three have cargo capacity around 45 cubic feet, which makes them about as spacious as a Hyundai Elantra hatchback.
“I think the idea of what an SUV is over the last few years has changed,” Ms. Caldwell said. “They are essentially passenger car replacement. They are slightly higher, with more flexible cargo space.”
Still, not every buyer is going smaller. Large trucks remain top sellers in the United States.
One might think the market is becoming saturated, but the timing of the overall sales slowdown almost couldn’t be better for large trucks. Plenty of models are getting revampedin the near future.
For the 2019 model year, Chevrolet plans to introduce its redesigned Silverado; Ram has a new 1500 (which has not been redesigned since 2009); and Ford will return the midsize Ranger pickup to its lineup. In addition, an F150 diesel will give buyers a more economical choice from that recently redesigned model.
And in the larger SUV category, visitors can expect to see the new three-row Subaru Ascent, plus the new Jeep Wrangler.
But electric motors are on the upswing: With General Motors and Volvo among companies preparing for an all-electric future, and several European Union countries saying they’ll phase out the internal combustion engine, the future of electrics has never lookedbrighter.
Chevrolet released the Bolt in 2017; Nissan is putting out its second-generation Leaf; and the Tesla Model 3 has only recently had production starting to fulfill back orders.
Ms. Caldwell said that counting electrics, hybrids and plug-ins, electrified vehicles were about 3.2 percent of sales through October, up from 2.8 percent in 2016. She said she expects they’ll reach 4.4 percent of the market for 2018.
Buyers are drawn to the latest technology: Though sales are flattening, Ms. Caldwell said consumer focus has shifted.
“People are not replacing cars because they need to, but because of all the advancement in technology, Bluetooth and Apple Car Play, and now the move toward autonomy,” she said.
Still, the average age of a car traded is 6.2 years, and the average age of all vehicles on the road is 11.6 years. Both numbers remain on the rise, Ms. Caldwell said.
So, it’s up to automakers to keep the innovation and excitement level high, to keep the future as bright as the pastfew years have been.