Poll gives Saccone narrow edge over Lamb

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

With the March 13 special election just under a month away, the race between Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District is far closer than expected, according to a new poll from Monmouth University. But it’s unclear how much more Mr. Lamb has to grow.

Mr. Saccone holds a lead over Mr. Lamb, with a margin that varies depending on which turnout model pollsters use. Assuming that partisan turnout is consistent with that of other special elections in the past year, Mr. Saccone’s advantage is 49 percent to 46 percent. A lower-turnout model, one that assumes voters will turn out in the same proportions as the 2014 midterm elections, gives Mr. Saccone a five-point edge of 50 percent to 45 percent. Both results are within the poll’s 5.5 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

“Saccone has a slight edge, but it’s nowhere near the double-digit advantage Republicans typically enjoy in this district,” said Patrick Murray, who directs Monmouth University’s Polling Institute, in a statement. “The potential for a Democratic surge like we have seen in other special elections helps Lamb stay in the hunt, but it does not close the gap entirely.”

If all voters were to cast ballots, Mr. Saccone’s lead would be seven points — 48 percent to 41 percent. Mr. Murray said in the polling release that despite “higher enthusiasm among Democrats ... this district’s strong Republican bent may simply be too high a hurdle for Lamb to overcome.”

In an interview, Mr. Murray said that although the race is “closer than anyone would expect,” the last few percentage points would prove difficult for Mr. Lamb to capture. The majority of his support is in the suburbs south of Pittsburgh, he said — a region Republicans would prefer to move out of the district entirely — and the poll’s