Poll gives Saccone narrow edge over Lamb

with Mr. Lamb’s 31 percent.

The poll did not ask voters about a third-party candidate, Libertarian Drew Miller. Polls often overstate the popularity of third-party options, Mr. Murray said, so Monmouth decides whether to include such candidates based on previous thirdparty performance in the district. There hasn’t been such a candidate in District 18 in nearly two decades. Then again, he added, “There haven’t been Democrats in a lot of years either.”

The poll identified only 4 percent of voters as undecided — which Mr. Murray said reflects its reliance on likely voters. Turnout in special elections can be difficult to gauge, and Mr. Murray said “we’ve learned a lot” from such contests in the past year. But he said Monmouth’s models proved accurate in a special Senate election in Alabama late last year.

The poll also suggests Mr. Lamb was wise to repudiate the leadership of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi — and that Republicans have been equally smart to try tying him to her. Although only 40 percent of voters said they had heard he would not support her as the Democratic leader, 52 percent of voters who are undecided say that position makes them more likely to support him.

The Monmouth University poll is the first major polling outfit to survey the race. Some internal polling has suggested the race is within single-digit margins, though Mr. Saccone has consistently held an edge. A Gravis Marketing poll from early January showed Mr. Saccone with a 12-point lead.