Boil alert in Congo
The potential for a humanitarian crisis is ahead
Another major violent explosion may be imminent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to observers in the region. The last time this occurred, from 1998 to 2003, an estimated 1 million to 5 million people died and eight other African nations became involved as warfare spread.
The DRC has borders on the former French Congo, the Central African Republic, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia and Angola, none of them models of stability in their own right. Last time, Zimbabwe and Namibia piled in as well, attracted by the DRC’s mineral wealth.
This time, the evil signs are in the form of violent disorder, and the presence of some 70 anti-government rebel groups in 10 of the DRC’s 26 provinces. There are some 18,000 U.N. peacekeeping forces in the country, led by Pakistan with a credible unit. But the immensity of the country and the proliferation of dissident forces make it impossible even for foreign troops to control. The DRC’s own security forces, with the exception of the presidential guard, are ill-paid, ill-cared for and greatly outnumbered. Frequently, they run after being attacked.
The honeypot that attracts them all, including the reason for President Joseph Kabila to want to continue to extend his already illegally lengthened stay in office, is the DRC’s mineral wealth. It has a scandal of ores, including diamonds, gold, coltan, copper, cobalt, zinc and tin. The DRC also has offshore oil, enormous potential hydroelectric power, timber, interesting wild animals and a rich culture. Although in principle the exploitation of most of these assets depends also on a measure of security, the country has nonetheless managed to stagger through almost 58 years of independence, albeit with recurring mayhem.
Mr. Kabila, 46, succeeded his father, Laurent Kabila, as president after his assassination in 2001. He was supposed to have stepped down by the end of last year, through elections, having already lengthened his term illegally in terms of the DRC constitution. His authority as president has almost completely waned. If he ran again, as he has pledged not to, it is estimated that he would get 10 percent of the vote. His father succeeded the notorious Mobutu Sese Seko, driven out in 1997.
There is some thought, at least in Africa, with Zimbabwe’s Robert G. Mugabe and South Africa’s Jacob Zuma having been forced out in recent months, that Mr. Kabila will be the next to go in a major African country. There is no guarantee of this, nor is there any obvious choice as successor to Mr. Kabila, unlike in both Zimbabwe and South Africa.
It is this situation, a boiling pot with no clear catch-pan, in a country of an estimated 80 million, with a lot of money to steal, that has observers nervous. The DRC has continued to get by, in a lamentable state, for many years, but many Congolese die and their standardof living remains appalling as this chaoticprocess proceeds.